Working Papers

2014-14 | May 2014

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A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment

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In standard macroeconomic models, the two objectives in the Federal Reserve's dual mandate—full employment and price stability—are closely intertwined. We motivate and estimate an alternative model in which long-term unemployment varies endogenously over the business cycle but does not affect price inflation. In this new model, an increase in long-term unemployment as a share of total unemployment creates short-term tradeoffs for optimal monetary policy and a wedge in the dual mandate. In particular, faced with high long-term unemployment following the Great Recession, optimal monetary policy would allow inflation to overshoot its target more than in standard models.

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Article Citation

Rudebusch, Glenn D, and John C. Williams. 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2014-14. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2014-14