Research Spotlight
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2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Call for Papers
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host “Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery” on November 19, 2021, as part of the Asia Economic Policy Conference series. Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to be the keynote speaker. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by […]
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How Bad Is the U.S. 2020 Fire Season?
The U.S. 2020 fire season has been intense so far, especially in California and Oregon. Assessing the spread of wildfires through mid-November shows it is comparable to the two most damaging fire seasons in recent memory. However, learning the cost of actual damages will take time. Read SF Fed Blog by Luiz E. Oliveira for […]
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Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19
While China’s economy plunged following the outbreak of COVID-19, official data report that it has rebounded sharply. The San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker—or China CAT—confirms this, indicating modestly higher activity than China’s official data for the second quarter of 2020. Learn more about China’s economic growth through quarterly updates to the China CAT […]
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Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s July 2020 Decision Means for You
The Research Department has launched a new way to help people understand the policy statements released after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The first videos include a chat about what goes into policy discussions and another about the July 2020 FOMC decision. Check out the San Francisco Fed’s #FOMCrewind on Twitter, and read more […]
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Comparing News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 to the 2008 Financial Crisis
The Daily News Sentiment Index can be used to assess how sentiment responded to the COVID-19 crisis compared to the 2008 financial crisis. News sentiment declined at a similar pace and scale during both crises but recovered more quickly in the financial crisis. Read more on SF Fed Blog by Shelby Buckman, Adam Shapiro, and […]
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In the Headlines: Petrosky-Nadeau Research Hits Washington Post Front Page
The chart tells the story: “Jobless Rate Soars to 14.7%, Worst Level since Great Depression.” The front-page story in the Washington Post’s May 8 issue features a graphic from research by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, FRB San Francisco, and coauthor Lu Zhang in their paper, “Unemployment Crises.” The Post notes that the authors analyze historical sources to […]
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Keeping an Eye on Daily News Sentiment
The Daily News Sentiment Index is available on the San Francisco Fed’s Research website. Featuring research by Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, and Dan Wilson, the index shows how economic sentiment has changed during the current pandemic and offers downloadable data back to 1980. News sentiment data will be updated each week to show the past […]
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2020 Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy – Canceled
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco had hoped to host its Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy on Friday, March 27, 2020. The conference brings together academic and central bank economists, financial market practitioners, and policymakers. Papers focus on macroeconomics broadly defined. Out of an abundance of caution due to the COVID-19 virus, […]
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The Finer Points of Cyclical and Acyclical Inflation
Distinguishing between items that change price with economic growth and those that are unaffected is one way to learn more about inflation. An update to the SF Fed’s Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation measure uses a new method to improve such inflation data. Read more
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In the Headlines: Jorda Research Featured in MarketWatch
“Opinion: This thorough study says which investments have done best since 1870” By Howard Gold, MarketWatch, November 21. Summarizing recent research by Òscar Jordà et al. in Quarterly Journal of Economics 34(3, August), Gold asks, “How well do the assets that people own perform over decades? The most recent effort to measure that … is […]