Board of Governors
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High Tech Business Entry in the Pandemic Era
Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger
FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: Board of Governors The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have featured a surge in business entry (Decker and Haltiwanger 2024). A natural question is whether the elevated entry seen in recent years will have positive implications for aggregate productivity growth given the historically important role of business entry for productivity dynamics (Decker […]
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Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers
Bennett Schmanski, Chiara Scotti, Clara Vega, Hedi Benamar
FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: Board of Governors We estimate monetary policy surprises (sentiment) from the perspective of three different textual sources: direct central bank communication (FOMC statements and press conferences), news articles, and Twitter posts during FOMC announcement days. Textual sentiment across sources is highly correlated, but there are times when news and Twitter sentiment substantially […]
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More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment
Travis Adams, Andrea Ajello, Diego Silva, Francisco Vazquez-Grande
FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: Board of Governors We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and survey-based measures of financial conditions. We document that overnight Twitter financial sentiment […]