ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: August 2012 Edition


Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Economic Research for the Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation

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August 1, 2012

Recent data have generally disappointed and suggest some loss of momentum in the ongoing economic recovery. Manufacturing activity, one of the bright spots so far in the recovery, is cooling, and a recent increase in the saving rate suggests that consumers may have become more cautious. Output growth as measured by GDP is likely to expand by a little less than 2% through the end of the year and pick up slightly to about a 2¼% pace next year. In line with the tepid outlook for growth, unemployment is expected to decline very gradually to slightly below 8% by the end of 2013. Meanwhile, in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, job growth was higher than that of the nation as a whole over the 12 months ending in June, although the District unemployment rate remains well above the national rate.