How Much Are Firms Spending on AI (and What Will Happen to Headcounts)?

Authors

José María Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kevin Foster, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Michael Navarrete

Posted to EERN: July 14, 2026

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: Atlanta

We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already high—78 percent of US firms are using it—and set to grow. Back then, US business executives said AI adoption had little impact to date on productivity or employment in their firms. At the same time, these same executives think AI will raise productivity by 2.25 percent, on average, over the next three years and lower headcounts by 1.2 percent. That’s based on data that’s now about six months old. Although we plan to update that paper very soon (and with the help of additional central banks surveying firms across the globe), a couple supplementary questions have come to mind. Specifically, how much are firms actually spending on AI? And how do firm managers anticipate the extra spending will change the composition of their workforce?

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