Young Workers’ Employment Drops in Occupations with High AI Exposure

Authors

Tyler Atkinson, Shane Yamco

Posted to EERN: March 3, 2026

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: DALLAS

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to raise productivity and economic growth, but there is concern it will replace workers or at least disrupt labor markets and temporarily squeeze employment during the transition from old occupations to new ones. In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI? Consistent with other analyses, we find some correlation across occupations between employment declines and AI exposure, but only for younger workers. This suggests only a slight impact on the aggregate unemployment rate so far. Lower employment for young workers in AI-exposed occupations is primarily driven by a decline in people transitioning directly from out of the workforce into employment rather than by layoffs or low job-finding rates among the unemployed.

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