Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth

Authors

Hannah Rubinton, Bontu Ankit Patro

Posted to EERN: February 3, 2026

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: St. Louis

Since the arrival of ChatGPT in 2022, generative artificial intelligence technologies have been reshaping the way we work and live. As of August 2025, generative AI tools were used by 55% of people and 37% of workers in the U.S. While there is an ongoing debate about how AI will impact productivity and growth going forward, the technology is already affecting gross domestic product (GDP) numbers through its associated investment boom. As adoption continues to spread and new uses for AI tools emerge, substantial complementary investment in hardware, software, research and development (R&D), and new data centers will be required. This investment surge drew particular attention as an important driver of growth in the first half of 2025. Using newly released GDP data for the third quarter of 2025, this post measures how much these AI-related investment categories are contributing to real GDP growth and compares the current investment boom with that of the dot-com era (mid-1990s to 2000).

Read the paper