A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011


Travis J. Berge

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2011-28 | November 1, 2011

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others —this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

Article Citation

Jorda, Oscar, and Travis J. Berge. 2011. “A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2011-28. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2011-28

About the Author
Òscar Jordà
Òscar Jordà is a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Òscar Jordà