A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy

Authors

Glenn D. Rudebusch

Tao Wu

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2003-17 | December 1, 2004

This paper develops and estimates a macro-finance model that combines a canonical affine no-arbitrage finance specification of the term structure with standard macroeconomic aggregate relationships for output and inflation. From this new empirical formulation, we obtain several interesting results: (1) the latent term structure factors from finance no-arbitrage models appear to have important macroeconomic and monetary policy underpinnings, (2) there is no evidence of monetary policy inertia or a slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate by the Federal Reserve, and (3) both forward-looking and backward-looking elements play important roles in macroeconomic dynamics.

Article Citation

Rudebusch, Glenn D., and Tao Wu. 2003. “A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2003-17. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2003-17