Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds

2019-15 | October 1, 2019

We assess the impact of news concerning the reforms associated with “Abenomics” using an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. Our model explicitly accounts for the deflation protection enhancement embedded in Japanese inflation-indexed bonds issued since 2013, which pay their original nominal principal when deflation has occurred from issue to maturity. The value of this enhancement is sizable and time-varying, with substantive impacts on estimates of expected inflation compensation. After properly accounting for deflation protection, our results suggest that Japanese inflation risk premia were mostly negative during this period. Moreover, long-term inflation expectations remained positive throughout, despite extensive spells of realized deflation. Finally, initial market responses to policy changes associated with Abenomics and afterwards were not as inflationary as they appear under standard modeling procedures, implying that the program was less “disappointing” than many perceive.

Article Citation

Christensen, Jens H. E., and Mark M. Spiegel. 2019. “Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2019-15. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2019-15

About the Authors
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Jens Christensen is a research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Jens Christensen
Mark Spiegel
Mark Spiegel is a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Mark Spiegel