We update Rose and Spiegel (2010a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.
Rose, Andrew K., and Mark M. Spiegel. 2011. “Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2011-02. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2011-02