Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles


Daria Finocchiaro

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2013-02 | October 1, 2012

This paper proposes a simple method to structurally estimate a model over a period of time containing a regime shift. It then evaluates to which degree it is relevant to explicitly acknowledge the break in the estimation procedure. We apply our method on Swedish data, and estimate a DSGE model explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. We show that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious estimates of model parameters including parameters in both policy and non-policy economic relations. Accounting for the regime change suggests that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the first regime, and mostly to inflation in the second. The sources of business cycle fluctuations and their transmission mechanism are significantly affected by the exchange rate regime.

Article Citation

Finocchiaro, Daria, and Vasco Curdia. 2013. “Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2013-02. Available at

About the Author
Vasco Cúrdia
Vasco Cúrdia is a research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Vasco Cúrdia