Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics

2022-20 | August 1, 2022

We use theory and empirics to distinguish between the impact of temperature on transition (temporary) and steady state (permanent) growth in output per capita. Standard economic theory suggests that the long-run growth rate of output per capita is determined entirely by the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). We find evidence suggesting that the level of temperature affects the level of TFP, but not the growth rate of TFP. This implies that a change in temperature will have a temporary, but not a permanent, impact on growth in output per capita. To highlight the quantitative importance of distinguishing between permanent and temporary changes in economic growth, we use our empirical estimates and theoretical framework to project the impacts of future increases in temperature from climate change. We find losses that are substantial, but smaller than those in the existing empirical literature that assumes a change in temperature permanently affects economic growth.

Article Citation

Goode, Ethan, Gregory Casey, and Stephie Fried. 2022. “Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2022-20. Available at

About the Authors
Abstract image representing a seat vacancy.
Stephie Fried is a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Stephie Fried
Ethan Goode is a data analyst for the Allegheny County Department of Human Services.