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of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco

Business Cycles

A business cycle is the change in overall economic activity of a nation from a period of growth or expansion to a period of contraction or recession.

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Series: Economic Letter
The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation

Naomi Halbersleben, Oscar Jorda, Fernanda Nechio

Series: Economic Letter
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?

Regis Barnichon, Aayush Singh

Series: Working Papers
A New Labor Market Stress Indicator

Rohit Garimella, Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh

Series: Economic Letter
Signs of Cyclical Weakness in Part-Time Employment?

Greeshma Avaradi, Stephie Fried, Toby Graf, Marianna Kudlyak, Brandon Miskanic

Series: Working Papers
A Behavioral Foundation for the Investment Wedge

Jean-Paul LHuillier, Pierlauro Lopez, Sanjay Singh

News: Research Spotlight
Introducing a Weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator
Insights: SF Fed Blog
Introducing a Weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator

Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh

Series: Economic Letter
Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life

Mary C. Daly

Series: Economic Letter
Industry Decline and Household Finances

Joshua Blonz, Brigitte Roth-Tran, Sarah Siegel, Erin Troland, Cindy Zhao

Series: Working Papers
Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairo, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau