Marianna Kudlyak
Research Advisor
Macroeconomic Research
Macroeconomics, Macrolabor, Consumer finance
CV (pdf, 88.32 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | Personal website
Working Papers
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
2020-20 | With Hall | March 2021
abstract (+)A remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle is that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery begins, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate is stable at around one tenth of the current level of unemployment. For example, when the unemployment rate was 7 percent at the beginning of a year, the unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points during the year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. There was high variation in monetary and fiscal policy, and in productivity and labor-force growth during the recoveries, but little variation in the rate of decline of unemployment. We show that the evolution of the labor market involves more than the direct effect of persistent unemployment of job-losers from the recession shock—unemployment during the recovery is elevated for people who did not lose jobs during the recession. We explore models of the labor market’s self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment following a recession shock. We emphasize the feedback from high unemployment to the forces driving job creation. These models also explain why the recovery of market-wide unemployment is so much slower than the rate at which individual unemployed workers find new jobs. The reasons include the fact that the path that individual job-losers follow back to stable employment often includes several brief interim jobs.
Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?
2020-05 | With Hornstein | February 2020
abstract (+)Current unemployment, as of 2019Q4, is so low not because of unusually high job finding rates out of unemployment, but because of unusually low entry rates into unemployment. The unusually low entry rates, both from employment and from out of the labor force, reflect a long-run downward trend, and have lowered the unemployment rate trend over the recent decade. In fact, the difference between the current unemployment rate and unemployment rates at the two previous cyclical peaks in 2000 and 2007 is more than fully accounted for by the decline in its trend. This suggests that the current low unemployment rate does not indicate a labor market that is tighter than in 2000 or 2007.
Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends
2019-07 | With Hornstein | February 2019
abstract (+)We estimate trends in the labor force participation (LFP) and unemployment rates for demographic groups differentiated by age, gender, and education, using a parsimonious statistical model of age, cohort and cycle effects. Based on the group trends, we construct trends for the aggregate LFP and unemployment rate. Important drivers of the aggregate LFP rate trend are demographic factors, with increasing educational attainment being important throughout the sample and ageing of the population becoming more important since 2000, and changes of groups’ trend LFP rates, e.g. for women prior to 2000. The aggregate unemployment rate trend on the other hand is almost exclusively driven by demographic factors, with about equal contributions from an older and more educated population. Extrapolating the estimated trends using Census Bureau population forecasts and our own forecasts for educational shares, we project that over the next 10 years the trend LFP rate will decline to 61.1% from its 2018 value of 62.7%, and the trend unemployment rate will decline to 4.3% from its 2018 value of 4.7%.
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
2019-05 | With Hall | January 2020
abstract (+)We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey. Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find another soon. Others have close to equal flow values and tend to circle through jobs, search, and non-market activities. And yet others have flow values for non-market activities that are higher than those in the market, and do not work. We develop a model that identifies and quantifies heterogeneity in dynamic individual behavior. Our model provides a bridge between research on monthly transition rates in the tradition of Blanchard and Diamond (1990) and research on economic dynamics in the tradition of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Our estimates discern 5 distinct types. Most unemployment comes from just two of those types. Low employment types frequently circle among unemployment, short-term jobs, and being out of the labor market. Short-term jobs play a role in the job-finding process related to the role of unemployment. These are stop-gap jobs for high-employment types and a part of circling for low-employment types. Because of their high job-finding rates, and despite their low flow values of non-work relative to work, the volatility of the future lifetime value that high-employment types derive from work and non-work is lower than for low-employment types.
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
2018-04 | With Dupor, Karabarbounis, and Mehkari | January 2019
abstract (+)We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.29. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the estimated positive local multiplier, a result that distinguishes our incomplete markets model from models with complete markets. The aggregate consumption multiplier is 0.64, which implies an output multiplier higher than one. The aggregate consumption multiplier is almost twice the local estimate because trade linkages propagate government spending across regions.
Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories
2017-20 | With Lange | January 2018
abstract (+)We construct a novel measure of the duration of joblessness using the labor force status histories in the four-month CPS panels. For those out of the labor force (OLF) and the unemployed, the job finding rate declines with the duration of joblessness. This duration measure dominates other existing measures in the CPS for predicting transitions from non-employment to employment. For those OLF, the variation in job finding rates explained by the duration of joblessness is five times larger than the variation explained by the self-reported desire to work or reasons for not searching. For the unemployed, the job finding rate declines with the self-reported duration of unemployment only to the extent that this variable correlates with the duration of joblessness. The two duration measures are not equivalent, and the discrepancy between them is not a classification error. Instead, the self-reports of unemployment durations refer to how long the respondent looked for work, often disregarding short-term jobs or including periods of employment while searching. Using our novel measure, we provide new estimates of the duration distribution of the unemployed and reexamine current approaches to misclassification error in the CPS.
Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market
2017-05 | With Hornstein | February 2017
abstract (+)In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment. Based on these observations we have argued in Hornstein, Kudlyak, and Lange (2014) for an alternative measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a non-employment index, which is more comprehensive than the standard unemployment rate. In this article we show how the NEI fits into recent extensions of the matching function which is a standard macroeconomic approach to model labor markets with frictions, how it affects estimates of the extent of labor market frictions, and how these frictions have changed in the Great Recession.
Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit
2016-31 | With Ghent | December 2016
abstract (+)We document novel, economically important correlations between children’s future credit risk scores, default, and homeownership status and their parents’ credit characteristics measured when the children are in their late teens. A one standard deviation higher parental credit risk score when the child is 19 is associated with a 24 percent reduction in the likelihood that the child goes bankrupt by age 29, a 36 percent lower likelihood of other serious default, a 35 point higher child credit score, and a 23 percent higher chance of the child becoming a homeowner. The linkages persist after controlling for parental income. The linkages are stronger in cities with lower intergenerational income mobility, implying that common factors might drive both. Existing measures of state-level educational policy have limited effects on the strength of the linkages. Evidence from a sample of siblings suggests that the linkages might be largely due to family fixed effects.
Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort
2016-24 | With Hornstein | December 2016
abstract (+)We introduce a simple representation of endogenous search effort into the standard matching function with job-seeker heterogeneity. Using the estimated augmented matching function, we study the sources of changes in the average employment transition rate. In the standard matching function, the contribution of matching efficiency is decreasing in the matching function elasticity. In contrast, for our matching function with variable search effort and small matching elasticity, search effort is procyclical, accounting for most of the transition rate volatility; and the decline of the aggregate matching efficiency accounts for a small part of the decline in the transition rate after 2007. For a large matching elasticity, search effort is countercyclical, and large movements in matching efficiency compensate for that; and the decline in the matching efficiency accounts for a large part of the decline in the transition rate after 2007. The data on employment transition rates provide evidence for endogenous search effort but do not separately identify cyclicality of search effort and matching elasticity.
supplement (+) wp2016-24_appendix.pdf – Supplemental Appendix
Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data (Revised September 2014)
FRB Richmond 12-03R | With Lkhagvasuren and Sysuyev | April 2012
abstract (+)We use novel high-frequency panel data on individuals’ job applications from a job posting website to study how job seekers direct their applications over the course of a job search. We find that at the beginning of search there is sorting of applicants across vacancies by education. As the search continues, education becomes a weaker predictor of which job a job seeker applies for, and an average job seeker applies for jobs that are a first-week choice of less educated job seekers. The findings suggest that search is systematic, whereby a job seeker samples high-wage opportunities first and lower-wage opportunities later. The findings are consistent with the literature that documents declining reservation wages and provide evidence in favor of theories of job seekers’ learning.
The Cyclical Price of Labor When Wages Are Smoothed
FRB Richmond 10-13 | August 2010
abstract (+)I conduct an empirical investigation of the cyclicality of the price of labor. Firms employ workers up to the point where workers’ marginal revenue product equals the price of labor. If the labor market is a spot market, then the price of labor is the wage. But often workers are contracted for more than one period. The price of labor captures both the wage at the time of hiring and the impact of labor market conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. The price of labor and not wage is allocational for employment. Because it is not directly observed in the data, I construct the price of labor based on the behavior of individual wages and turnover. I find that a one percentage point increase in unemployment generates more than a 4.5% decrease in the price of labor. This cyclicality is three times higher than the cyclicality of individual wages and also noticeably higher than the cyclicality of the wages of newly hired workers. I conclude that the price of labor is very procyclical.
A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market
Manuscript | With Lange and Hornstein | April 2014
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
What Do Recoveries from Past US Recessions Teach Us about the Recovery from the Pandemic Recession?
VoxEU, 2020 | With Hall
abstract (+)The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to job loss of catastrophic proportions in the United States. This column looks at recoveries from recessions over past 70 years to assess how the US labour market might recover from this job loss of unprecedented magnitude. Remarkably consistent recoveries have occurred in the US after every recessionary shock that caused a spike in unemployment, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery from the current shock will be more rapid, because unemployment contains a much larger fraction of workers on temporary layoff than in previous recoveries. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the possible recovery rate.
Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data
Journal of European Economic Association, January 2020 | With Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Mondragon
abstract (+)Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt relative to their income than low-income households in lower inequality regions. We also find evidence that low-income households face higher credit prices and reduced access to credit as inequality increases. We argue that these patterns are consistent with inequality tilting credit supply away from low-income households and toward high-income households, which may have long-run implications for outcomes like homeownership or entrepreneurship.
The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(3), July 2019, 327-357 | With Faberman
abstract (+)We use online job application data to study the relationship between search intensity and search duration. The data allow us to control for job seeker composition and the evolution of available job openings over the duration of search. We find that, within an individual search spell, search intensity declines continuously. We also find that longer-duration job seekers search more intensely throughout their search. They tend to be older, male, nonemployed, and live in areas with weaker labor markets. Our findings contradict standard assumptions of labor search models. We discuss how to reconcile the theory with our evidence.
Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 77(in progress), April 2017, 48-69 | With Sanchez
abstract (+)Gertler and Gilchrist (1994) provide seminal evidence for the prevailing view that adverse shocks are propagated via credit constraints: small firms are affected more during tight credit periods than large firms. Under this view, the deep recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis is often interpreted as the propagation of the initial “credit shock.” Following Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)’s methodology, we study the behavior of small and large firms during episodes of credit disruption and extend the analysis to the 2008 financial crisis and NBER-dated recessions. We find that large firms’ short-term debt and sales contracted relatively more than those of small firms during the 2008 financial crisis and during most recessions since 1969. The results are robust to changes in the business cycle dating procedure. Using Compustat, we also find that during 2007–09 low financially dependent firms suffered more than high financially dependent firms. These results favor the view that a tightening of a financial or collateral constraint might not be a good representation of the 2007-09 crisis.
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
Data update web page, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, November 2016 | With Hornstein and Lange
What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market?
FRB Chicago Economic Perspectives 40(1) , May 2016 | With Faberman
abstract (+)This article finds that in 2011, online job search was much more prevalent and significantly more effective in helping job seekers gain employment than about a decade earlier. Moreover, it shows that online job search data generally capture the aggregate patterns of the U.S. labor market. The authors discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these data for research, and summarize related studies.
What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 101(3), May 2016, 225-244
abstract (+)Aggregate wage growth has remained flat during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath while unemployment has exhibited substantial swings. Does the low real aggregate wage growth during the recovery indicate a weak labor market beyond what is measured by the official unemployment rate? Aggregate wage growth reflects actual changes of workers’ wages, changes in the composition of workers, and changes in the composition of jobs. Some of these changes are related to underlying structural trends in the economy while others constitute the economy’s response to the business cycle shocks and are more indicative of cyclical resource utilization in the labor market. Consequently, it is important to look beyond the aggregate statistics to understand the behavior of real wages and its relation to the health of the labor market. In this article, we review recent literature that studies the changes in the components of the aggregate wage over time and, specifically, after the 2007-09 recession.
The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48(7), 2016, 1495-1513 | With Debbaut and Ghent
abstract (+)We study a new law that restricts credit to individuals under age 21. We first use a
difference-in-difference approach to estimate the effect of the law on credit card availability.
Following the passage of the law, individuals under age 21 are 8 percentage points (15 percent) less likely to have a credit card, have fewer cards, and, conditional on having a card at all, are 35 percent more likely to have a cosigned card. We then
use data from before the passage of the law to identify the characteristics of those individuals most likely to be affected by the Act.
Aging and the Economy: The Japanese Experience
The Regional Economist, October 2015, 12-13 | With Reed and Canon
What We Know About Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 101(3), Q3 2015, 225-244
abstract (+)Aggregate wage growth has remained flat during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath while unemployment has exhibited substantial swings. Does the low real aggregate wage growth during the recovery indicate a weak labor market beyond what is measured by the official unemployment rate? Aggregate wage growth reflects actual changes of workers’ wages, changes in the composition of workers, and changes in the composition of jobs. Some of these changes are related to underlying structural trends in the economy while others constitute the economy’s response to the business cycle shocks and are more indicative of cyclical resource utilization in the labor market. Consequently, it is important to look beyond the aggregate statistics to understand the behavior of real wages and its relation to the health of the labor market. In this article, we review recent literature that studies the changes in the components of the aggregate wage over time and, specifically, after the 2007-09 recession.
The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor
Journal of Monetary Economics 68, November 2014, 53-67
abstract (+)The user cost of labor is the expected difference between the present discounted value of wages paid to a worker hired in the current period and that paid to a worker hired in the next period. Analogous to the price of any long-term asset, the user cost, not wage, is the relevant price for a firm that is considering adding a worker. I construct its counterpart in the data and estimate that it is substantially more procyclical than average wages or wages of newly hired workers. I demonstrate an application of the finding using the textbook search and matching model.
Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 47, October 2014, 39-53 | With Fuller and Lkhagvasuren
abstract (+)We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receives idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits – productivity insurance while unemployed. For plausible parameterizations unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. In addition, the welfare-maximizing benefit level decreases as moving costs increase.
Flows To and From Working Part Time for Economic Reasons and the Labor Market Aggregates During and After the 2007-09 Recession
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 100(2), Q2 2014, 87-111 | With Canon, Luo, and Reed
abstract (+)Using counterfactual exercises for the transition probabilities between full-time employment, part-time employment for economic reasons (PTER), part-time employment for noneconomic reasons (PTNER), unemployment, and out-of-the-labor-force similar to Shimer (2012), we find that, ceteris paribus, changes in the transition probabilities to and from PTER in the aftermath of the 2007-09 recession were mainly associated with changes in the composition of employment (full- versus part time, and PTER versus PTNER) instead of with changes in the distribution of individuals between employment and non-employment. Consequently, policymakers’ attention to PTER implies a broader definition of resource underutilization in the labor market than a simple extensive employment margin as captured by the standard unemployment rate. It brings attention to the intensive employment margin and the quality of employment. Since PTER workers’ share is highest in non-routine manual (typically, low-wage) occupations and given recent works on job polarization, it is a challenging task to disentangle cyclical versus structural factors behind an increased number of PTER workers after the 2007-09 recession.
Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 100(1), Q1 2014, 1-21 | With Hornstein and Lange
abstract (+)In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment to employment. These observations on labor market transitions suggest that the standard unemployment rate and its extensions proposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are both too coarse and too narrow as measures of resource utilization in the labor market. These measures are too narrow since they exclude a large part of the population that is potentially employable, and they are too coarse since they assume the same labor force attachment for all nonemployed individuals. We construct a measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a nonemployment index, that is both comprehensive and accounts for differences in labor force attachment. Prior to 2007, the standard unemployment rate was highly correlated with our nonemployment index but, during the recession of 2007–09 and its aftermath, the standard unemployment rate overstated the extent of underutilization in the labor market.
A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 99(1), Q1 2013, 25-43
abstract (+)We estimate a trend in the aggregate labor force participation rate using the age-gender and the birth cohort effects in the labor force participation rates of different demographic groups and the actual demographic composition of the population. We find that, in 2012, the aggregate labor force participation rate is close to its trend.
Housing Services Price Inflation
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 98(3), Q3 2012, 185-207
abstract (+)We provide an explanation of how inflation of the price of housing services is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and describe alternative approaches. We then describe the contribution of inflation of the price of housing services to inflation in the consumer price index during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Finally, we examine new data series that provide additional information about the rental market for housing services and use this information to evaluate the direction of the pressure on housing services price inflation.
Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 97(4), Q4 2011, 359-387 | With Lubik and Tompkins
abstract (+)We conduct an accounting exercise of the changes in aggregate employment, unemployment, and out of labor force (OLF) among 25–64-year-old men from 1968–2010. We decompose the observed changes in these labor market outcomes into changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and changes in the labor market outcomes of different sociodemographic groups. Using the results of the decomposition, we predict that the OLF-to-population ratio for men will increase to 16 percent in 2015, up from 14.7 percent in 2010.
Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from U.S. States
Review of Financial Studies 20 (9), September 2011, 3139-3186 | With Ghent
abstract (+)We quantify the effect of recourse on default and find that recourse affects default by lowering the borrower’s sensitivity to negative equity. At the mean value of the default option for defaulted loans, borrowers are 30% more likely to default in non-recourse states. Furthermore, for homes appraised at $500,000 to $750,000, borrowers are twice as likely to default in non-recourse states. We also find that defaults are more likely to occur through a lender-friendly procedure, such as a deed in lieu, in states that allow deficiency judgments. We find no evidence that mortgage interest rates are lower in recourse states.
Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 96(2), Q2 2010, 179-199
abstract (+)Search models of the labor market suggest that a significant determinant of job creation decisions by firms is the expected value of the initial and future real wages that firms have to pay to workers in newly formed employment relationships. Until recently, the focus of the empirical literature has been on the cyclical behavior of the current wage, but not on the cyclical behavior of the expected present discounted value of future wages within a match. This article reviews the empirical literature on the cyclicality of real wages of workers in continuing employment relationships, wages of newly hired workers, and a measure of wages that takes into account future wages within employment relationships. The existing evidence suggests that the real wage most relevant for job creation decisions appears to be quite flexible over the business cycle. Thus, the wage data do not support the rigidity necessary to generate the empirical volatility of unemployment in the standard search and matching model.
FRBSF Publications
Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment in the Pandemic
Economic Letter 2020-34 | November 16, 2020 | With Wolcott, Ochse, and Kouchekinia
Why Is Unemployment Currently So Low?
Economic Letter 2020-06 | March 2, 2020 | With Ochse
Who from Out of the Labor Force Is Most Likely to Find a Job?
Economic Letter 2020-02 | January 13, 2020
Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession
Economic Letter 2019-30 | November 25, 2019
The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections
Economic Letter 2018-25 | November 19, 2018 | With Hornstein and Schweinert
How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices
Economic Letter 2018-12 | May 7, 2018 | With Hale, Krishnamurthy, and Shultz
How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus
Economic Letter 2018-11 | April 16, 2018 | With Karabarbounis and Mehkari
How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?
Economic Letter 2017-25 | August 28, 2017 | With Hornstein
Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index
Economic Letter 2017-08 | March 27, 2017
