Òscar Jordà
Vice President
Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Research
Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Monetary economics
Oscar.Jorda (at) sf.frb.org
CV (pdf, 77.87 kb)
Working Papers
Inflation Globally
2018-15 | With Nechio | December 2018
abstract (+)Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
2018-05 | With Schularick, Taylor, and Ward | May 2018
abstract (+)The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
2017-25 | With Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick, and Taylor | December 2017
abstract (+)Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
2017-06 | With Richter, Schularick, and Taylor | March 2017
abstract (+)The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
2017-02 | With Schularick and Taylor | May 2018
abstract (+)Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
2016-23 | With Schularick and Taylor | September 2016
abstract (+)Shocks and Adjustments
2013-32 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio | July 2017
abstract (+)Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
NBER WP 17150 | With Taylor | June 2011
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects: string theory revisitied
Forthcoming in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics | With Angrist and Kuersteiner
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 | With Taylor
abstract (+)The Great Mortgaging
Economic Policy 31(85), January 2016, 107-152 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Leveraged Bubbles
Journal of Monetary Economics 76, December 2015, S1-S20 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Betting the House
Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 | With Schularick and Taylor
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences
Journal of the European Economic Association DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12144, July 2015 | With Schularick and Taylor
Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 729-740
abstract (+)Computing Systemic Risk Using multiple Behavioral and Keystone Networks: The Emergence of a Crisis in Primate Societies and Banks
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 797-806 | With Fushing, Beisner, and McCowan
abstract (+)Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
National Institute Economic Review 228: R58-R64, May 2014 | With Nechio, Daly, and Fernald
abstract (+)Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting 29(3), September 2013, 456-468 | With Marcellino and Knuppel
abstract (+)A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity
Journal of the Spanish Economic Association – SERIES 4(1), March 2013, 1-34 | With Berge
abstract (+)When Credit Bites Back
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 45(s2), 2013, 3-28 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear but FEER Itself
Journal of International Economics 88(1), September 2012, 74-90 | With Taylor
abstract (+)The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium
International Economic Review 53(2), May 2012, 609-634 | With Chong and Taylor
abstract (+)Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
IMF Economic Review 59(2), June 2011, 340-378 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application to the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve
International Economic Review 52(2), May 2011, 461-487 | With Kozicki
abstract (+)Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3(2), April 2011, 246-277 | With Berge
abstract (+)Path Forecast Evaluation
Journal of Applied Econometrics 25(4), May 2010, 635-662 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses
Review of Economics and Statistics 91(3), August 2009, 629-647
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 161-182
abstract (+)Time Scale Transformations of Discrete Time Processes
Journal of Time Series Analysis 25(6), November 2004, 873-894 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
Journal of International Money and Finance 23(5), September 2004, 761-783 | With Bergin
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36(3), June 2004, 387-406 | With Demiralp
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
Review of Economic Dynamics 6(4), October 2003, 941-962 | With Salyer
abstract (+)Modeling High-Frequency FX Data Dynamics
Macroeconomic Dynamics 7(4), August 2003, 618-635 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target
Journal of Political Economy 110(5), July 2002, 1135-1167 | With Hamilton
abstract (+)Testing Nonlinearity: Decision Rules for Choosing between Logistic and Exponential STAR Models
Spanish Economic Review 3, 2001, 193-209 | With Escribano
abstract (+)Random Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7(3), July 1999, 382-396
abstract (+)FRBSF Publications
Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
Economic Letter 2019-05 | February 11, 2019 | With Marti, Nechio, and Tallman
The Rate of Return on Everything
SF Fed Blog | 2018
Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?
Economic Letter 2017-09 | April 3, 2017 | With Schularick and Taylor
Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences
Economic Letter 2016-27 | September 12, 2016 | With Schularick and Taylor
Interest Rates and House Prices: Pill or Poison?
Economic Letter 2015-25 | August 3, 2015 | With Schularick and Taylor
Mortgaging the Future?
Economic Letter 2015-09 | March 23, 2015 | With Schularick and Taylor
Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged
Economic Letter 2014-35 | November 24, 2014 | With Elias and Irvin
Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law
Economic Letter 2014-12 | April 21, 2014 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises
Economic Letter 2014-07 | March 10, 2014 | With Schularick and Taylor
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis
Economic Letter 2013-38 | December 23, 2013 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Crises Before and After the Creation of the Fed
Economic Letter 2013-13 | May 6, 2013 | With Elias
Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break?
Economic Letter 2012-37 | December 17, 2012 | With Daly, Elias, and Hobijn
Credit: A Starring Role in the Downturn
Economic Letter 2012-12 | April 16, 2012
Future Recession Risks: An Update
Economic Letter 2011-35 | November 14, 2011 | With Berge and Elias
Variable Capital Rules in a Risky World
Economic Letter 2011-27 | August 29, 2011
Future Recession Risks
Economic Letter 2010-24 | August 9, 2010 | With Berge
Diagnosing Recessions
Economic Letter 2010-05 | February 16, 2010
Do Monetary Aggregates Help Forecast Inflation?
Economic Letter 2007-10 | April 13, 2007 | With Hale
Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-term Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2005-09 | May 20, 2005