Òscar Jordà
Senior Policy Advisor
Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Monetary economics
CV (pdf, 77.87 kb) | Bio (pdf, 111.97 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | LinkedIn | Personal website
Working Papers
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
2020-36 | With Kornejew, Schularick, and Taylor | December 2020
abstract (+)Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
2020-12 | With Cloyne and Taylor | September 2020
abstract (+)Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
2020-11 | With Schularick and Taylor | August 2020
abstract (+)Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
2020-09 | With Singh and Taylor | June 2020
abstract (+)The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
2020-01 | With Singh and Taylor | January 2020
abstract (+)Riders on the Storm
2019-20 | With Taylor | September 2019
abstract (+)The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
2019-10 | With Schularick and Taylor | March 2019
abstract (+)Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
2017-06 | With Richter, Schularick, and Taylor | March 2017
abstract (+)Shocks and Adjustments
2013-32 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio | July 2017
abstract (+)Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
NBER WP 17150 | With Taylor | June 2011
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Inflation Globally
Forthcoming in Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy, ed. by J. Gali and D. Saraiva. Central Bank of Chile | With Nechio
abstract (+)The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
Journal of Monetary Economics 112, June 2020, 22-40 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3), August 2019, 1225-1298 | With Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick, and Taylor
abstract (+)Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
IMF Economic Review 67(1), March 2019, 109-150 | With Schularick, Taylor, and Ward
abstract (+)Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 36(3), May 2017, 371-387 | With Angrist and Kuersteiner
abstract (+)The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 | With Taylor
abstract (+)Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 45-79 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Great Mortgaging
Economic Policy 31(85), January 2016, 107-152 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Leveraged Bubbles
Journal of Monetary Economics 76, December 2015, S1-S20 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Betting the House
Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 729-740
abstract (+)Computing Systemic Risk Using multiple Behavioral and Keystone Networks: The Emergence of a Crisis in Primate Societies and Banks
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 797-806 | With Fushing, Beisner, and McCowan
abstract (+)Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
National Institute Economic Review 228, May 2014, R58-R64 | With Nechio, Daly, and Fernald
abstract (+)Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting 29(3), September 2013, 456-468 | With Marcellino and Knuppel
abstract (+)A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity
Journal of the Spanish Economic Association – SERIES 4(1), March 2013, 1-34 | With Berge
abstract (+)When Credit Bites Back
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 45(s2), 2013, 3-28 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear but FEER Itself
Journal of International Economics 88(1), September 2012, 74-90 | With Taylor
abstract (+)The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium
International Economic Review 53(2), May 2012, 609-634 | With Chong and Taylor
abstract (+)Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
IMF Economic Review 59(2), June 2011, 340-378 | With Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application to the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve
International Economic Review 52(2), May 2011, 461-487 | With Kozicki
abstract (+)Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3(2), April 2011, 246-277 | With Berge
abstract (+)Path Forecast Evaluation
Journal of Applied Econometrics 25(4), May 2010, 635-662 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses
Review of Economics and Statistics 91(3), August 2009, 629-647
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 161-182
abstract (+)Time Scale Transformations of Discrete Time Processes
Journal of Time Series Analysis 25(6), November 2004, 873-894 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
Journal of International Money and Finance 23(5), September 2004, 761-783 | With Bergin
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36(3), June 2004, 387-406 | With Demiralp
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
Review of Economic Dynamics 6(4), October 2003, 941-962 | With Salyer
abstract (+)Modeling High-Frequency FX Data Dynamics
Macroeconomic Dynamics 7(4), August 2003, 618-635 | With Marcellino
abstract (+)A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target
Journal of Political Economy 110(5), July 2002, 1135-1167 | With Hamilton
abstract (+)Testing Nonlinearity: Decision Rules for Choosing between Logistic and Exponential STAR Models
Spanish Economic Review 3, 2001, 193-209 | With Escribano
abstract (+)Random Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7(3), July 1999, 382-396
abstract (+)FRBSF Publications
The Fog of Numbers
Economic Letter 2020-20 | July 15, 2020 | With Kouchekinia, Merrill, and Sekhposyan
The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | With Hale and Rudebusch
Riders on the Storm
Economic Letter 2019-29 | November 18, 2019 | With Taylor
Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
Economic Letter 2019-19 | July 15, 2019 | With Marti, Nechio, and Tallman
Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
Economic Letter 2019-05 | February 11, 2019 | With Marti, Nechio, and Tallman
The Rate of Return on Everything
SF Fed Blog | Feb 2018
Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?
Economic Letter 2017-09 | April 3, 2017 | With Schularick and Taylor
Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences
Economic Letter 2016-27 | September 12, 2016 | With Schularick and Taylor
Interest Rates and House Prices: Pill or Poison?
Economic Letter 2015-25 | August 3, 2015 | With Schularick and Taylor
Mortgaging the Future?
Economic Letter 2015-09 | March 23, 2015 | With Schularick and Taylor
Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged
Economic Letter 2014-35 | November 24, 2014 | With Elias and Irvin
Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law
Economic Letter 2014-12 | April 21, 2014 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises
Economic Letter 2014-07 | March 10, 2014 | With Schularick and Taylor
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis
Economic Letter 2013-38 | December 23, 2013 | With Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Crises Before and After the Creation of the Fed
Economic Letter 2013-13 | May 6, 2013 | With Elias
Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break?
Economic Letter 2012-37 | December 17, 2012 | With Daly, Elias, and Hobijn
Credit: A Starring Role in the Downturn
Economic Letter 2012-12 | April 16, 2012
Future Recession Risks: An Update
Economic Letter 2011-35 | November 14, 2011 | With Berge and Elias
Variable Capital Rules in a Risky World
Economic Letter 2011-27 | August 29, 2011
Future Recession Risks
Economic Letter 2010-24 | August 9, 2010 | With Berge
Diagnosing Recessions
Economic Letter 2010-05 | February 16, 2010
Do Monetary Aggregates Help Forecast Inflation?
Economic Letter 2007-10 | April 13, 2007 | With Hale
Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-term Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2005-09 | May 20, 2005