Òscar Jordà
Senior Policy Advisor
Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Monetary economics
CV (pdf, 275.14 kb) | Bio (pdf, 111.97 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | LinkedIn | Personal website
Working Papers
Significance Bands for Local Projections
2023-15 | with Inoue and Kuersteiner | May 2023
abstract (+)Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier
2023-14 | with Alessandri and Venditti | May 2023
abstract (+)A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies
2023-12 | with Dube, Girardi, and Taylor | April 2023
abstract (+)Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
2023-06 | with Grimm, Schularick, and Taylor | February 2023
abstract (+)State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
2023-05 | with Cloyne and Taylor | February 2023
abstract (+)Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
2020-12 | with Cloyne and Taylor | September 2020
abstract (+)Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
2020-11 | with Schularick and Taylor | August 2020
abstract (+)The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
2020-01 | with Singh and Taylor | May 2023
abstract (+)Riders on the Storm
2019-20 | with Taylor | September 2019
abstract (+)The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
2019-10 | with Schularick and Taylor | March 2019
abstract (+)Shocks and Adjustments
2013-32 | with Daly, Fernald, and Nechio | July 2017
abstract (+)Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
NBER WP 17150 | with Taylor | June 2011
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
Forthcoming in European Economic Review | with Nechio
abstract (+)Local Projections for Applied Economics
Forthcoming in Annual Review of Economics
abstract (+)Bank Capital before and after Financial Crises
Forthcoming in Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial Fragility, ed. by Moritz Schularick. Chicago: University of Chicago Press | with Richter, Schularick, and Taylor
Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crises
Forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies | with Richter, Schularick, and Taylor
abstract (+)Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
Review of Financial Studies 35(10), October 2022, 4,561-4,586 | with Kornejew, Schularick, and Taylor
abstract (+)Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
Review of Economics and Statistics 104(1), January 2022, 166-175 | with Singh and Taylor
abstract (+)The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
Journal of Monetary Economics 112, June 2020, 22-40 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Inflation Globally
In Chapter 7, Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (Volume 27), ed. by G. Castex, J. Gali and D. Saravia | Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2020. 269-316 | with Nechio
abstract (+)The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3), August 2019, 1225-1298 | with Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick, and Taylor
abstract (+)Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
IMF Economic Review 67(1), March 2019, 109-150 | with Schularick, Taylor, and Ward
abstract (+)Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 36(3), May 2017, 371-387 | with Angrist and Kuersteiner
abstract (+)The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 | with Taylor
abstract (+)Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 45-79 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Great Mortgaging
Economic Policy 31(85), January 2016, 107-152 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Leveraged Bubbles
Journal of Monetary Economics 76, December 2015, S1-S20 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Betting the House
Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 729-740
abstract (+)Computing Systemic Risk Using multiple Behavioral and Keystone Networks: The Emergence of a Crisis in Primate Societies and Banks
International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), July 2014, 797-806 | with Fushing, Beisner, and McCowan
abstract (+)Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
National Institute Economic Review 228, May 2014, R58-R64 | with Nechio, Daly, and Fernald
abstract (+)Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting 29(3), September 2013, 456-468 | with Marcellino and Knuppel
abstract (+)A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity
Journal of the Spanish Economic Association – SERIES 4(1), March 2013, 1-34 | with Berge
abstract (+)When Credit Bites Back
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 45(s2), 2013, 3-28 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear but FEER Itself
Journal of International Economics 88(1), September 2012, 74-90 | with Taylor
abstract (+)The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium
International Economic Review 53(2), May 2012, 609-634 | with Chong and Taylor
abstract (+)Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
IMF Economic Review 59(2), June 2011, 340-378 | with Schularick and Taylor
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application to the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve
International Economic Review 52(2), May 2011, 461-487 | with Kozicki
abstract (+)Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3(2), April 2011, 246-277 | with Berge
abstract (+)Path Forecast Evaluation
Journal of Applied Econometrics 25(4), May 2010, 635-662 | with Marcellino
abstract (+)Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses
Review of Economics and Statistics 91(3), August 2009, 629-647
abstract (+)Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 161-182
abstract (+)Time Scale Transformations of Discrete Time Processes
Journal of Time Series Analysis 25(6), November 2004, 873-894 | with Marcellino
abstract (+)Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
Journal of International Money and Finance 23(5), September 2004, 761-783 | with Bergin
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36(3), June 2004, 387-406 | with Demiralp
abstract (+)The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
Review of Economic Dynamics 6(4), October 2003, 941-962 | with Salyer
abstract (+)Modeling High-Frequency FX Data Dynamics
Macroeconomic Dynamics 7(4), August 2003, 618-635 | with Marcellino
abstract (+)A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target
Journal of Political Economy 110(5), July 2002, 1135-1167 | with Hamilton
abstract (+)Testing Nonlinearity: Decision Rules for Choosing between Logistic and Exponential STAR Models
Spanish Economic Review 3, 2001, 193-209 | with Escribano
abstract (+)Random Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7(3), July 1999, 382-396
abstract (+)Books
Debt: The eye of the storm
2022 | Geneva reports on the World economy 24, CEPR Press | Boone • Fels • Jorda • Schularick • Taylor
FRBSF Publications
Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?
Economic Letter 2023-23 | September 5, 2023 | with Singh and Taylor
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Economic Letter 2022-25 | September 6, 2022 | with C Liu, Nechio, and Rivera-Reyes
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Economic Letter 2022-07 | March 28, 2022 | with C Liu, Nechio, and Rivera-Reyes
The Fog of Numbers
Economic Letter 2020-20 | July 15, 2020 | with Kouchekinia, Merrill, and Sekhposyan
The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | with Hale and Rudebusch
Riders on the Storm
Economic Letter 2019-29 | November 18, 2019 | with Taylor
Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
Economic Letter 2019-19 | July 15, 2019 | with Marti, Nechio, and Tallman
Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
Economic Letter 2019-05 | February 11, 2019 | with Marti, Nechio, and Tallman
The Rate of Return on Everything
SF Fed Blog | Feb 2018
Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?
Economic Letter 2017-09 | April 3, 2017 | with Schularick and Taylor
Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences
Economic Letter 2016-27 | September 12, 2016 | with Schularick and Taylor
Interest Rates and House Prices: Pill or Poison?
Economic Letter 2015-25 | August 3, 2015 | with Schularick and Taylor
Mortgaging the Future?
Economic Letter 2015-09 | March 23, 2015 | with Schularick and Taylor
Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged
Economic Letter 2014-35 | November 24, 2014 | with Elias and Irvin
Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law
Economic Letter 2014-12 | April 21, 2014 | with Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises
Economic Letter 2014-07 | March 10, 2014 | with Schularick and Taylor
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis
Economic Letter 2013-38 | December 23, 2013 | with Daly, Fernald, and Nechio
Crises Before and After the Creation of the Fed
Economic Letter 2013-13 | May 6, 2013 | with Elias
Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break?
Economic Letter 2012-37 | December 17, 2012 | with Daly, Elias, and Hobijn
Credit: A Starring Role in the Downturn
Economic Letter 2012-12 | April 16, 2012
Future Recession Risks: An Update
Economic Letter 2011-35 | November 14, 2011 | with Berge and Elias
Variable Capital Rules in a Risky World
Economic Letter 2011-27 | August 29, 2011
Future Recession Risks
Economic Letter 2010-24 | August 9, 2010 | with Berge
Diagnosing Recessions
Economic Letter 2010-05 | February 16, 2010
Do Monetary Aggregates Help Forecast Inflation?
Economic Letter 2007-10 | April 13, 2007 | with Hale
Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-term Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2005-09 | May 20, 2005