Information Acquisition and the Finance-Uncertainty Trap

Authors

Ding Dong

Allen Hu

Zhaorui Li

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2025-12 | July 15, 2025

Using novel measures of information acquisition, we document causal evidence of a feedback loop between firms’ credit access and information acquisition. To examine the macroeconomic implications of this feedback loop, we develop a tractable general equilibrium framework with financial frictions and endogenous information acquisition. In line with the empirical evidence, the model predicts that a rise in information costs raises the level of uncertainty and reduces a firm’s equity value, hampering its credit access. On the other hand, tightened credit constraints restrain activity of high-productivity firms, leading to misallocation that reduces aggregate productivity and firm profits, and discouraging information acquisition. This feedback loop creates a finance-uncertainty trap that substantially amplifies and prolongs business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested citation:

Dong, Ding, Allen Hu, Zhaorui Li, Zheng Liu. 2025. “Information Acquisition and the Finance-Uncertainty Trap.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2025-12. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-12

About the Authors
Zheng Liu is a vice president and director of the Center for Pacific Basin Studies in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Zheng Liu

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