-
Prospects for the U.S. Economy in 2008
Prospects for the U.S. Economy in 2008 Good morning, and thank you very much for inviting me to speak to you today. I was very pleased that things worked out for us to get together here at the San Francisco Fed, and I want you to know that we’re delighted to have you. I’d also […]
-
Prospects for the Economy in 2008
This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech by Janet L. Yellen, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to the Chartered Financial Analysts of Hawaii in Honolulu, Hawaii, on February 7, 2008.
-
Prospects for the Economy in 2008
Good evening, and thanks for inviting me to be part of CFA Hawaii’s Annual Economic Forecast Dinner tonight. As President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, it’s my responsibility to be in touch with what’s happening to the economy throughout our District, which includes Hawaii and eight other Western states. I do this […]
-
2006 Annual Pacific Basin Conference: Summary
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the annual Pacific Basin Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on June 16-17, 2006, under the sponsorship of the Bank’s Center for Pacific Basin Studies. The papers are listed at the end and are available online.
-
Global Current Account Adjustment: A Decomposition
The rising current account deficit in the USA has attracted considerable attention in recent years. We use the "business cycle accounting" methodology to identify the principal distortions that have affected the external accounts of the US. In particular, we measure distortions in the optimality conditions of a simple two-country general equilibrium model using data from the US and the other G7 countries. We then feed these measured distortions into the model individually and use the simulated counterfactual paths of the current account to determine the contribution of each of these "wedges" to the overall external imbalance of the USA. We find that no single wedge in isolation can account closely for the observed current account. However, a combination of productivity differences and deviations from risk-sharing between the US and the rest of the G7 does the best job in accounting for most of the measured movement of the US current account.
-
What If Foreign Governments Diversified Their Reserves?
World financial markets paid close attention when officials from both South Korea and Japan said that their governments were considering diversifying their holdings of foreign reserves (Dougherty 2005 and Koizumi 2005). Many analysts thought these announcements were partly in response to the past depreciation of the dollar; if true, then it seemed likely that those two governments would sell some of their dollar-denominated assets, putting further downward pressure on the dollar.
-
Policy Applications of a Global Macroeconomic Model
Central banks and other policy institutions have a long history of using macroeconomic models to help prepare forecasts and to quantify the economic consequences of various policies. Likewise, private sector firms have long depended on models to summarize these complex interactions succinctly and to evaluate the likelihood of specific macroeconomic outcomes; this is especially true for financial institutions, where such models can help with capital investment and asset allocation decisions.
-
Update on the Economy
This Economic Letter is adapted from several recent presentations by Robert T. Parry, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to civic and professional organizations in California.
-
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies
Controlling inflation is a key concern of central bankers around the world. But how best to control inflation differs across countries according to their individual characteristics; for example, small open economies tend to import more goods as a percentage of GDP than larger, more closed, economies, such as the United States.