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  • Mortgage Prepayments and Changing Underwriting Standards

    Despite historically low mortgage interest rates, borrower prepayments have been lower than expected over the past year. For example, a model based on prepayment data from 2000 through the beginning of 2009 predicts a prepayment rate for the first quarter of 2010 roughly twice as high as the observed rate. It can be conjectured that current low prepayment rates reflect the influence of factors specific to the housing bust, including a significant tightening of lending terms for certain borrowers, weak housing demand, and high foreclosure rates.

  • Linkages between Monetary and Regulatory Policy: Lessons from the Crisis

    The crisis of the past two years has underscored the connections between monetary policy, which seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability, and regulatory policy, which works to protect the financial system. The two domains can’t be regarded as separate. Researchers are currently examining ways in which monetary policy may play a role in managing systemic risk and regulatory policy may serve to promote macroeconomic goals. The following is adapted from a presentation made by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Institute of Regulation & Risk, North Asia, in Hong Kong on November 17, 2009.

  • Linkages between Monetary and Regulatory Policy: Lessons from the Crisis1

    Thank you. It is a great privilege to be here among such a distinguished group. I want to thank the Institute of Regulation & Risk for inviting me to speak tonight and express my particular gratitude to Ms. Au King-chi of the Hong Kong Government and Mr. Norman Chan of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. […]

  • Disagreement about the Inflation Outlook

    Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communications strategy.

  • The Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy1

    Watch Video It’s a pleasure to appear before a group of professionals who spend as much time trying to understand the financial markets and the economy as I do.  It’s fair to say that the last two or three years have provided all of us an education—a far-from-welcome one—of just how complex these subjects are.  […]

  • The Uncertain Economic Outlook and the Policy Responses1

    Good afternoon and thank you for inviting me. I’m delighted to speak before a group of such distinguished forecasters. As a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, I too must regularly predict the course of the economy and lately that has become a particularly hazardous occupation. We are struggling to assess the effects of […]

  • The U.S. Economic Situation and the Challenges for Monetary Policy

    This Economic Letter is adapted from speeches delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on September 4 and 5, 2008, to a group of community leaders in Salt Lake City, Utah, and to the Rotary Club of Los Angeles, respectively.

  • The U.S. Economic Situation and the Challenges for Monetary Policy1

    Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for coming. It’s always a pleasure to visit Los Angeles, where our Reserve Bank has a major branch, and I’m honored by the invitation to speak to you today. My remarks today will focus on conditions in the U.S. economy. There is a lot to cover, but I plan […]

  • The U.S. Economic Situation and the Challenges for Monetary Policy1

    Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for coming. It is always a pleasure to visit Salt Lake City. Our branch office was established here in 1918, and the Fed’s ties to this community are long and deep. This morning, the directors of our Salt Lake City Board met with their counterparts from Seattle and Portland […]

  • Panel discussion of William R. White “Globalisation and the Determinants of Domestic Inflation”*

    I would like to thank Governor Noyer and the Banque de France for organizing this stimulating conference on globalization, inflation and monetary policy. With strong global growth boosting oil, food and materials prices, the linkages between globalization and domestic inflation—one focus of Bill White’s interesting paper–are very much on the minds of monetary policymakers these days. […]