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  • Monetary Policy and the Recovery

    Presentation to Boise Business and Community Leaders’ Luncheon
    Boise, Idaho

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  • SR 12-13FFIEC Statement on the Impact of Drought Conditions on Financial Institutions

    On October 16, 2012, The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council1 (“FFIEC”) issued a statement to assist financial institutions and their customers (members, in the case of credit unions) affected by severe drought conditions across much of the Midwest and southern portions of the United States. As a result of the 2012 drought, crop yields have […]

  • Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times

    The Federal Reserve has taken bold steps this past year, both in the approaches to stimulate the economy and the way it talks about policy. The Fed’s initiatives are working, and represent the best course to move toward maximum employment and price stability. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Semiconductor Materials and Equipment International (SEMI) 2013 Industry Strategy Symposium, in Half Moon Bay, California, on January 14, 2013.

  • Highway Grants: Roads to Prosperity?

    Federal highway grants to states appear to boost economic activity in the short and medium term. The short-term effects appear to be due largely to increases in aggregate demand. Medium-term effects apparently reflect the increased productive capacity brought by improved roads. Overall, each dollar of federal highway grants received by a state raises that state’s annual economic output by at least two dollars, a relatively large multiplier.

  • The Economy and Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times1

    Presentation to the SEMI 2013 Industry Strategy Symposium
    Half Moon Bay, California

  • Monetary Policy in an Era of Crises

    The enormous and prolonged economic fallout from the global financial crisis and the subsequent deleveraging have convincingly demonstrated the need to mitigate the risk of crisis. We should have known this from the work of Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff (2009), but the lesson has finally stuck. My topic this afternoon centers on the role […]

  • Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?

    Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.