FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis for a general audience

Marianna Kudlyak


The best predictor of someone from outside the labor force finding a job is how recently the person was employed, rather than their self-reported desire to work as is conventionally thought. Between 1999 and 2019, the composition of the out of the labor force group shifted towards people out of work for longer. Consequently, the pool has become less employable. This indicates that, even though the out of the labor force pool is larger, it does not signify additional labor market slack beyond that accounted for by the standard unemployment rate.

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Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook

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Working Papers

The latest in economic research

Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s - much earlier than the average projection from global climate models.

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