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  • Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

    The Weather-Adjusted Employment Change data page provides estimates of monthly weather-adjusted employment changes in the United States. Starting with the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) series on the monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment, we adjust for the employment effects of atypical seasonal weather, defined as deviations from historical seasonal norms following the […]

  • Housing Stability and Family Health: Five Things to Know

    A robust and growing body of literature points to the importance of pregnancy and early childhood as time periods that influence health, development, and long-term life chances. Less attention, however, has been paid to how housing instability during pregnancy and early childhood affects a person’s health over the long-term.

  • Global Current Account Adjustment: A Decomposition

    The rising current account deficit in the USA has attracted considerable attention in recent years. We use the "business cycle accounting" methodology to identify the principal distortions that have affected the external accounts of the US. In particular, we measure distortions in the optimality conditions of a simple two-country general equilibrium model using data from the US and the other G7 countries. We then feed these measured distortions into the model individually and use the simulated counterfactual paths of the current account to determine the contribution of each of these "wedges" to the overall external imbalance of the USA. We find that no single wedge in isolation can account closely for the observed current account. However, a combination of productivity differences and deviations from risk-sharing between the US and the rest of the G7 does the best job in accounting for most of the measured movement of the US current account.

  • What If Foreign Governments Diversified Their Reserves?

    World financial markets paid close attention when officials from both South Korea and Japan said that their governments were considering diversifying their holdings of foreign reserves (Dougherty 2005 and Koizumi 2005). Many analysts thought these announcements were partly in response to the past depreciation of the dollar; if true, then it seemed likely that those two governments would sell some of their dollar-denominated assets, putting further downward pressure on the dollar.

  • Strengthening Financial Health in Times of Crisis

    COVID-19 makes it clearer than ever that inclusion in the financial system is critical for households and businesses to access timely relief funds. Distributing funds at scale, however, presents numerous challenges, including issues related to technology and communication. To explore what it takes to have an inclusive financial system, Laura Choi sat down with Leigh Phillips, CEO of SaverLife, for a conversation on leveraging fintech, data, and strategic partnerships to strengthen financial health in times of crisis.

  • FedViews: June 2, 2022

    Mark Spiegel, senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of June 2, 2022.

  • Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?

    Historical data indicate a strong relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance. A key demographic trend is the aging of the baby boom generation. As they reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling their equity holdings to finance retirement. Statistical models suggest that this shift could be a factor holding down equity valuations over the next two decades.

  • SF Fed Launches Tool to Forecast COVID-19 Infections by County

    Using the latest data on social distancing behavior, weather, vaccinations, and confirmed COVID-19 cases per capita, our Economic Research team’s new data page forecasts changes in COVID-19 infection rates across U.S. counties. Economist Dan Wilson explains how this new tool uses recent statistics to help project future infection growth.

  • Pascal Paul

    Pascal Paul is a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies

    Controlling inflation is a key concern of central bankers around the world. But how best to control inflation differs across countries according to their individual characteristics; for example, small open economies tend to import more goods as a percentage of GDP than larger, more closed, economies, such as the United States.