First Glance 12L
These quarterly reports highlight key indicators of 12th District banking conditions.
Fourth Quarter 2022: Economic and Liquidity Pressures Intensified for Banks
Posted March 8, 2023
The 4Q22 issue of First Glance 12L notes cooling job and real estate market conditions in the West. Among the District’s banks, funding costs increased notably as nonmaturity deposit runoff picked up, deposit competition intensified, and banks shifted to pricier funding sources.
Third Quarter 2022: Banks Continued to Navigate a Rising Interest Rate Environment
Posted December 16, 2022
The 3Q22 issue of First Glance 12L notes cooling job and real estate market conditions in the District. Among the District’s banks, rising interest rates benefitted earnings, but weighed on bond portfolio values and influenced growth and funding trends.
Second Quarter 2022: Hiring and Lending Expanded despite a Clouded Outlook
Posted August 31, 2022
The 2Q22 issue of First Glance 12L notes further improvement in the District’s job markets despite rising interest rates and declining consumer and business confidence. In addition, median loan growth among District banks — excluding Paycheck Protection Program loans — accelerated to nearly 16% year-over-year, the fastest pace among all twelve Federal Reserve districts and the strongest rate since 2006.
First Quarter 2022: Risks Persist in an Uncertain Economic Environment
Posted June 1, 2022
The 1Q22 issue of First Glance 12L notes further improvements in the job, housing, and commercial real estate markets despite a January surge in COVID-19 cases. Among District banks, quarterly loan growth and profits as well as on-balance sheet liquidity and risk-based capital ratios remained sound but eased slightly. Loans continued to perform well, but bankers’ expectations about the economic outlook dimmed.
Fourth Quarter 2021: The Recovery Continued but a New Year Brings New Uncertainties
Posted March 1, 2022
The 4Q21 issue of First Glance 12L notes the continued recovery of jobs, tight housing markets, and improved but uneven commercial real estate market conditions. Meanwhile, banks’ average loan growth accelerated, more than offsetting declining Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) balances. Quarterly profits continued to benefit from PPP fees and low provision expense burdens, but not to the same degree as 3Q21.
Third Quarter 2021: Job and Non-PPP Loan Growth Accelerated, but Downside Risks Persist
Posted December 8, 2021
The 3Q21 issue of First Glance 12L notes improved hiring, but also intensifying concerns about labor availability, supply chains, and inflation. Meanwhile, District banks reported accelerating traditional loan growth, offset by declining Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) balances. PPP forgiveness also triggered earlier recognition of PPP fees, especially among community banks. All this and more are discussed in a new, re-designed report format.
Second Quarter 2021: Recent Virus Transmission May Weigh on the Recovery
Posted September 9, 2021
The 2Q21 issue of First Glance 12L notes that economic activity picked up during the quarter, but subsequent virus transmission may weigh on the recovery. District bank earnings were stable despite net interest margin pressures, partly because better-than-expected asset quality constrained provision expenses. The “Spotlight” feature explores fraud trends.
First Quarter 2021: Waning Case Counts and Fiscal Stimulus Fueled Growth
Posted June 4, 2021
The 1Q21 issue of First Glance 12L notes that waning virus activity and new fiscal stimulus helped boost confidence and reduce unemployment. A brighter economic outlook reduced bank provision expenses, while renewed Paycheck Protection Program activity drove bank loan growth. In the “Spotlight” section this quarter: residential real estate conditions.
Fourth Quarter 2020: On the Eve of Additional Stimulus
Posted March 10, 2021
The 4Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that Paycheck Protection Program loan forgiveness boosted quarterly bank profits but eroded loan growth. Surging winter virus activity hurt employment, but by early 2021, easing case counts, vaccine rollout, and new federal stimulus brightened the outlook. In the “Spotlight” feature this quarter: municipal government fiscal challenges.
Third Quarter 2020: Not Yet Out of the Woods
Posted December 11, 2020
The 3Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that federal stimulus, low interest rates, and loan modifications continued to blunt the effects of COVID-19 on the economy and banks. However, resurging virus transmission has left the recovery vulnerable. The report highlights banking risks on our radar and recaps selected pandemic impacts.
Second Quarter 2020: In the Eye of the Storm
Posted September 3, 2020
The 2Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that Paycheck Protection Program activity swelled bank balance sheets, distorting several financial metrics. Growth and borrower accommodations held delinquency ratios at bay; however, performance will likely deteriorate once stimulus and forbearance efforts fade. In addition to various hot topics, the report spotlights disparities in household financial stress.
First Quarter 2020: COVID-19: From Headwind to Hurricane
Posted July 2, 2020
The 1Q20 issue of First Glance 12L charts the sudden and dramatic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal stimulus and borrower relief blunted some of the economic and banking damage, but the path of the recovery remains uncertain. The report highlights various hot topics, including the small business credit landscape.
Fourth Quarter 2019: COVID-19 Fears Could Amplify Bank Earnings Pressures
Posted March 2, 2020
The 4Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes that job and housing markets remained strong, but bank loan growth and earnings slipped. COVID-19 will pose additional headwinds to growth and bank net interest margins in 2020. The report discusses various hot topics, including the forthcoming community bank leverage ratio.
Third Quarter 2019: Interest Rate Shift Helped Housing but Hurt Bank Net Interest Margins
Posted December 6, 2019
The 3Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes robust labor and housing markets in the District, but slower lending growth and weaker quarterly bank net interest margins. Banks’ on-balance sheet liquidity and capital ratios strengthened, on average. In addition to supervisory hot topics, the report spotlights wildfire-related risks in California.
Second Quarter 2019: Banks in Sound Condition but Face Global Slowing and Inverted Yield Curve
Posted September 4, 2019
The 2Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes improved District job growth and first half bank profits. Bank capital ratios also strengthened from mid-2018 levels, but were constrained by parent company share buybacks, the topic of our “Spotlight” feature. Slowing global growth, trade tensions, and yield curve shifts pose headwinds.
First Quarter 2019: District Growth Solid but Slowing amid Rising Trade Tensions
Posted May 31, 2019
The 1Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes decelerating growth in District jobs, home prices, and lending. Quarterly bank profits came under pressure in part because of seasonal effects on asset yields and shifts to costlier funding sources. This quarter’s Spotlight feature discusses the District’s potential economic exposure to rising tariffs.
Fourth Quarter 2018: Bank Profits Strong amid Waning Growth and Weaker Sentiment
Posted February 28, 2019
The 4Q18 issue of First Glance 12L notes continued strong bank performance. At the same time, District job growth slowed and sentiment regarding future loan demand, credit performance, and economic conditions weakened. Some housing markets and price tiers showed signs of softening. A new Spotlight feature discusses bank branching trends.
Third Quarter 2018: Improved Economy and Bank Profits Face Cooling Optimism
Posted November 30, 2018
The 3Q18 issue of First Glance 12L notes continued strong economic conditions and improved bank earnings and capital positions. However, deposit competition intensified, and on-balance sheet liquidity tightened. Surveys by various government and industry groups noted broad but cooling optimism about current conditions and some concern about forward trends.
Second Quarter 2018: Bank Profits Buoyed Capital but Deposit Growth Slowed
Posted August 28, 2018
The 2Q18 issue of First Glance 12L notes year-over-year improvements in earnings and capital ratios amid slower core deposit growth. The pace of employment gains remained comparatively strong, albeit cooler than in 1Q18 and 2Q17. Growing trade tensions could pose risks to employment growth and real estate demand in pockets.
First Quarter 2018: Job Gains and Bank Profits Improved as Loan Growth Slowed
Posted May 31, 2018
The 1Q18 issue of First Glance 12L notes that wider net interest margins and lower taxes boosted bank earnings year-over-year amid slower loan growth. Job gains remained strong in most states, but housing demand continued to outstrip supply, lifting home prices, crimping affordability, and prompting outmigration in some markets.
Fourth Quarter 2017: Tax Reform Lifted Optimism but Crimped Bank Profits
Posted March 2, 2018
The 4Q17 issue of First Glance 12L notes that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 boosted optimism, but also prompted deferred tax asset write-downs and one-time bonuses at many banks. Although job and loan growth remained strong, increasingly tight labor and housing availability may constrain future growth.
Third Quarter 2017: Bank Margins Made Headway Amid Slackening Job and Loan Growth
Posted November 22, 2017
The 3Q17 issue of First Glance 12L notes that rising asset yields and sticky deposit pricing helped lift the District’s average return on average assets ratio above 1 percent for the first time since 2007. Job and loan growth outpaced the nation but slowed, and commercial property prices neared a peak.
Second Quarter 2017: Bank Credit Quality Remained Solid, But For How Long?
Posted August 25, 2017
The 2Q17 issue of First Glance 12L notes stronger bank earnings performance and few credit issues. Of note, District banks’ past due loan volumes increased year-over-year on average for the first time since 2010, yet delinquency ratios continued to edge down due to positive, albeit slower loan growth.
First Quarter 2017: Solid Bank Performance Continued Despite Uncertainty
Posted May 25, 2017
The 1Q17 issue of First Glance 12L notes improved bank financial performance during a period of political and monetary policy uncertainty and decelerating job and loan growth. The report also indicates that commercial real estate markets may be in transition and discusses several “Hot Topics” of interest to supervisors.
Fourth Quarter 2016: Signs of a Maturing Economic and Banking Cycle Continued
Posted February 27, 2017
The 4Q16 issue of First Glance 12L shows strong, albeit slowing, growth in District jobs and bank loan portfolios. On average, full-year bank earnings improved and loan delinquencies declined. In addition to discussing several “Hot Topics,” the report notes potential headwinds from shifting trade conditions, immigration policies, and interest rates.
Third Quarter 2016: District Growth Was Solid but Showed Signs of Slowing
Posted November 18, 2016
The 3Q16 issue of First Glance 12L shows the District’s jobs and bank loan portfolios continued to expand, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Credit conditions remained good and bank profitability improved. Banks face opportunities and challenges because of appreciating real estate values and uncertainties regarding interest rates and trade policy.
Second Quarter 2016: Strong Growth: A Double-Edged Sword?
Posted August 23, 2016
The 2Q16 issue of First Glance 12L shows the District’s job growth strengthened real estate markets and boosted bank lending and net interest margins. However, liquidity and capital ratios tightened and commercial real estate loan concentrations expanded because loan growth outpaced increases in total assets, core deposits, and regulatory capital.
First Quarter 2016: Conditions Remained Healthy but Prone to Greater Volatility
Posted May 24, 2016
The 1Q16 issue of First Glance 12L shows the District’s economic and commercial bank performance remained sound. However, caution increased among equity and debt markets during 1Q16, crimping commercial mortgage securitization activity and venture capital deal volumes. Also, the authors noted that economic and banking statistics in most 12th District states have a history of above-average business cycle volatility.
Fourth Quarter 2015: Will 2015 be the High Point for District Bank Credit Quality?
Posted February 25, 2016
The 4Q15 issue of First Glance 12L shows District jobs expanded and overall bank credit quality improved notwithstanding economic slowing abroad and commodity and equity price volatility. Regardless, 2015 was marked by historic low net charge-off activity and may be tough to beat for credit performance metrics.
Third Quarter 2015: Banking Conditions Strengthened Despite Slowdown Abroad
Posted November 24, 2015
The 3Q15 issue of First Glance 12L reveals continued healthy levels of bank loan growth within the 12th District, paralleling the improving economy, and ongoing improvements to bank earnings and credit quality.
Second Quarter 2015: District Conditions Were Solid Prior to August Market Rout
Posted September 2, 2015
The 2Q15 issue of First Glance 12L details the expansion of jobs, housing permits, and loan portfolios, and tightening of noninterest expenses, helping to lift District bank earnings.
First Quarter 2015: Banking Recovery Continues but Headwinds Remain
Posted May 27, 2015
The 1Q15 issue of First Glance 12L shows continued improvement in 12th District bank credit quality, yet profitability remained constrained by narrowing net interest margins. Prospectively, a strong dollar and extreme drought pose challenges to borrowers who export goods, rely on foreign visitor activity, or engage in water-intensive industries.
Fourth Quarter 2014: A Year of Opportunities and Challenges
Posted February 24, 2015
The 4Q14 issue shows that bank earnings improved incrementally, but mainly because stronger credit quality fueled lower overhead and provision expense burdens; low interest rates continued to pressure margins.
Third Quarter 2014: Loan Growth Accelerated but Earnings Remained Muted
Posted December 1, 2014
The 3Q14 issue of First Glance 12L shows accelerating bank loan growth in tandem with the expanding economy. Credit quality improved but low interest rates continued to pressure earnings
Second Quarter 2014: District Banks Have Largely Recovered, But Earnings Remain Under Pressure
Posted September 11, 2014
The 2Q14 issue of First Glance 12L shows that conditions in the District continued to improve. Though trends are positive, a return to “normalcy” by pre-crisis standards has not yet materialized.
First Quarter 2014: 12th District Banks – Improvement Continues
Posted May 23, 2014
The 1Q14 issue of First Glance 12L shows that many economic and banking metrics within the 12th District continue to get closer to “normal” levels (i.e., long-term non-recession average), but earnings challenges remain.
Fourth Quarter 2013: District Banks – Approaching Full Recovery
Posted February 28, 2014
The 4Q13 issue of First Glance 12L shows that many economic and banking metrics within the 12th District are getting close to “normal” levels (i.e., long-term non-recession average), but earnings and other challenges remain.
Third Quarter 2013: Banking Recovery – Slow and Steady
Posted November 27, 2013
The 3Q13 issue of First Glance 12L details the slow financial recovery being made by District banks. Loan growth has been a bright spot, up to 7% year-over-year on average, and problem loans further declined. However, narrow net interest margins constrained profitability gains.
Second Quarter 2013: Banking Recovery – Liquidity Buildup and Deleveraging May be Over
Posted August 23, 2013
The 2Q13 issue of First Glance 12L suggests that the post-2008 liquidity buildup and deleveraging at District banks are now over. Loan growth is accelerating and problem loans are being worked down. Narrow margins continue to constrain profitability.
First Quarter 2013: Banking Recovery Continues Despite Margin Pressures
Posted May 22, 2013
The First Glance 12L provides a first look at the financial performance of the 12th Federal Reserve District banks each quarter. The 1Q13 report, subtitled “Banking Recovery Continues Despite Margin Pressures”, examines trends and conditions related to banks headquartered in the 12th Federal Reserve District (nine western states).
Fourth Quarter 2012: Western Banks: Solid Improvement, But Further To Go
Posted February 21, 2013
The First Glance 12L provides a first look at the financial performance of the 12th Federal Reserve District banks each quarter. The 4Q12 report, “Solid Improvement, But Further To Go,” examines industry and 12th District trends over extended time periods with a focus on improvements since the financial crisis.
Third Quarter 2012: The Banking Recovery Moved Forward
Posted November 21, 2012
The report, subtitled “The Banking Recovery Moved Forward”, tracks the recovery of 12th District banks from recession.
Second Quarter 2012: Banks Recovering – But Still Have a Long Way To Go
Posted August 20, 2012
The First Glance 12L provides a first look at the financial performance of banks in the West each quarter. The report, subtitled “Banks Recovering – But Still Have a Long Way to Go”, provides updated details on the recovery of District banks from the impact of the Great Recession.
First Quarter 2012: Banks Making Steady Progress Towards Full Recovery
Posted May 21, 2012
The First Glance 12L provides a first look at the financial performance of banks in the West each quarter. The 1Q12 report, subtitled “Banks Making Steady Progress Towards Full Recovery”, describes how banks of all sizes continued to reduce their average noncurrent loan rates with small banks lagging to some extent the improvement of larger banks.
Fourth Quarter 2011: Better Than Expected Performance; Will Positive Momentum Continue?
Posted February 21, 2012
The First Glance 12L provides a first look at the financial performance of 12th Federal Reserve District banks each quarter. The latest report is subtitled “Better Than Expected Performance; Will Positive Momentum Continue?”