
Kevin Lansing
Senior Research Advisor
Macroeconomic Research
Macroeconomics, Monetary economics, Asset pricing
CV (pdf, 51.31 kb) | Bio (pdf, 255.48 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | LinkedIn
Working Papers
Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
2021-02 | March 2023
abstract (+)Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
2019-27 | with Jorgensen | February 2023
abstract (+)Credit-Fuelled Bubbles
2016-02 | with Doblas-Madrid | March 2016
abstract (+)Learning About a Shift in Trend Output: Implications for Monetary Policy and Inflation
2000-16 | December 2000
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 197, 2022, 50-72 | with LeRoy and Ma
abstract (+)Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, 2021, 153-169
abstract (+)Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
Infectious Disease Modelling 5, 2020, 635-651 | with Buckman, Glick, Petrosky-Nadeau, and Seitelman
abstract (+)Inflation Dynamics and Adaptive Expectations in an Estimated DSGE Model
Journal of Macroeconomics 59, 2019, 258-277 | with Gelain, Iskrev, and Mendicino
abstract (+)Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation
International Journal of Economic Theory 15(1), March 2019, 77-94
abstract (+)Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse Engineering Approach
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 50(8), December 2018, 1751-82 | with Gelain and Natvik
abstract (+)Leaning Against the Credit Cycle
Journal of the European Economic Association 16(5), 2018, 1350-93 | with Gelain and Natvik
abstract (+)Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare
Economic Journal 128, 2018, 262-297 | with Markiewicz
abstract (+)Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations
Journal of International Money and Finance 70, 2017, 62-87 | with Ma
abstract (+)On Variance Bounds for Asset Price Changes
Journal of Financial Markets 28, March 2016, 132-148
abstract (+)Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks
American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 7(4), October 2015, 67-103
abstract (+)Discussion of: “Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Non-Fundamentalsâ€
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 2015, v. 47(S1), March 2015, 127-132
House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals
Journal of Empirical Finance 2014, v. 29, 2014, 3-25 (lead) | with Gelain
abstract (+)Risk Aversion, Investor Information, and Stock Market Volatility
European Economic Review 70, August 2014, 88-107 | with LeRoy
abstract (+)Housing Bubbles and Expected Returns to Home Ownership: Lessons and Policy Implications (with M. Jurgilas)
In Property Prices and Real Estate Financing in a Turbulent World, ed. by M. Balling and J. Berg | Société Universitaire Européenne de Recherches Financières (SUERF), 2013. pp. 101-128 | with Jurgilas
abstract (+)Monetary Policy and Asset Prices with Belief Driven Fluctuations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37, August 2013, 1453-1478 | with Airaudo and Cardani
abstract (+)House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy
International Journal of Central Banking 9(2), June 2013, 219-276 | with Gelain and Mendicino
abstract (+)Speculative Growth, Overreaction, and the Welfare Cost of Technology-Driven Bubbles
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (Special Issue on Financial Crisis) 83, August 2012, 461-483
abstract (+)Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles without Drift
Economic Journal 120, December 2010, 1149-1174
abstract (+)Capital-Labor Substitution and Equilibrium Indeterminacy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33, December 2009, 1991-2000 | with Guo
abstract (+)Speculative Bubbles and Overreaction to Technological Innovation
Journal of Financial Transformation 26, September 2009, 51-54
abstract (+)Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Review of Economic Dynamics 12(2), April 2009, 304-326
abstract (+)Maintenance Expenditures and Indeterminacy under Increasing Returns to Scale
International Journal of Economic Theory 3(2), June 2007, 147-158 | with Guo
abstract (+)Tax Reform with Useful Public Expenditures
Journal of Public Economic Theory 8(4), October 2006, 631-676 | with Cassou
abstract (+)Lock-in of Extrapolative Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model
Macroeconomic Dynamics 10(3), June 2006, 317-348
abstract (+)Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market
Journal of Financial Transformation 13, April 2005, 124-126
abstract (+)Growth Effects of Shifting from a Graduated Rate Tax System to a Flat Tax
Economic Inquiry 42(2), April 2004, 194-213 | with Cassou
abstract (+)Forward-Looking Behavior and Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy
Economics Letters 81(2), November 2003, 249-256 | with Trehan
abstract (+)Globally Stabilizing Fiscal Policy Rules
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 7(2), April 2003 | with Guo
abstract (+)Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, and Endogenous Fluctuations
Macroeconomic Dynamics 6(5), November 2002, 633-664 | with Guo
abstract (+)Expectations Credibility and Disinflation in a Small Macroeconomic Model
Journal of Economics and Business 51, January 2000, 51-86 | with Huh
abstract (+)Optimal Redistributive Capital Taxation in a Neoclassical Growth Model
Journal of Public Economics 73, 1999, 423-453
abstract (+)Optimal Taxation of Capital Income with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 23, 1999, 967-995 | with Guo
abstract (+)Fiscal Policy and Productivity Growth in the OECD
Canadian Journal of Economics 32, 1999, 1215-1226 | with Cassou
abstract (+)Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy
Journal of Economic Theory 82, 1998, 481-490 | with Guo
abstract (+)Optimal Fiscal Policy, Public Capital, and the Productivity Slowdown
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 22, 1998, 911-935 | with Cassou
abstract (+)Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model with Public Capital
Canadian Journal of Economics 31, 1998, 337-364
abstract (+)Welfare, Stabilization, or Growth: A Comparison of Different Fiscal Objectives
In Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability, ed. by Hairault, Henin, and Portier | New York: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997. 55-78 | with Cassou
abstract (+)Computable General Equilibrium Models and Monetary Policy Advice
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 27, 1995, 1472-1493 | with Altig and Carlstrom
abstract (+)FRBSF Publications
Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation
Economic Letter 2022-13 | May 23, 2022
Watch the Video: Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
SF Fed Blog | 2022 | with Oliveira and Shapiro
Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
Post on The Bridge | 2022 | with Oliveira and Shapiro
Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
Economic Letter 2022-03 | February 14, 2022 | with Oliveira and Shapiro
Return of the Original Phillips Curve
Economic Letter 2021-21 | August 9, 2021 | with Jørgensen
Recent Economic and Financial Developments and the Outlook
Fedviews | 2021
Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data
Economic Letter 2020-31 | October 13, 2020
Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts
Economic Letter 2020-03 | February 10, 2020 | with Yee
Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable
Economic Letter 2019-13 | May 6, 2019
Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns
Economic Letter 2018-29 | December 24, 2018 | with Tubbs
Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts?
Economic Letter 2018-17 | June 25, 2018 | with Aylward and Mahedy
Stock Market Valuation and the Macroeconomy
Economic Letter 2017-33 | November 13, 2017
R-star, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy
Economic Letter 2017-16 | May 30, 2017
Consequences of Rising Income Inequality
Economic Letter 2016-31 | October 17, 2016 | with Markiewicz
Projecting the Long-Run Natural Rate of Interest
Economic Letter 2016-25 | August 29, 2016
What’s Different about the Latest Housing Boom
Economic Letter 2015-34 | November 16, 2015 | with Glick and Molitor
Assessing the Recent Behavior of Inflation
Economic Letter 2015-24 | July 20, 2015
Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth
Economic Letter 2015-03 | February 2, 2015 | with Pyle
Housing Bubbles and Homeownership Returns
Economic Letter 2012-19 | June 25, 2012 | with Jurgilas
Gauging the Impact of the Great Recession
Economic Letter 2011-21 | July 11, 2011
Consumers and the Economy, Part I: Household Credit and Personal Saving
Economic Letter 2011-01 | January 10, 2011 | with Glick
Forecasting Growth over the Next Year with a Business Cycle Index
Economic Letter 2010-29 | September 27, 2010 | with Lang
Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption
Economic Letter 2010-01 | January 11, 2010 | with Glick
U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
Economic Letter 2009-16 | May 15, 2009 | with Glick
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
Economic Letter 2008-34 | October 31, 2008
Speculative Bubbles and Overreaction to Technological Innovation
Economic Letter 2008-18 | June 20, 2008
Asset Price Bubbles
Economic Letter 2007-32 | October 26, 2007
Will Moderating Growth Reduce Inflation?
Economic Letter 2006-37 | December 22, 2006
Spendthrift Nation
Economic Letter 2005-30 | November 10, 2005
Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market
Economic Letter 2004-30 | October 29, 2004
Should the Fed React to the Stock Market?
Economic Letter 2003-34 | November 14, 2003
Growth in the Post-Bubble Economy
Economic Letter 2003-17 | June 20, 2003
Can the Phillips Curve Help Forecast Inflation?
Economic Letter 2002-29 | October 4, 2002
Searching for Value in the U.S. Stock Market
Economic Letter 2002-16 | May 24, 2002
Real-Time Estimation of Trend Output and the Illusion of Interest Rate Smoothing
Economic Review | 2002
Uncertainties in Projecting Federal Budget Surpluses
Economic Letter 2001-10 | April 13, 2001
Exploring the Causes of the Great Inflation
Economic Letter 2000-21 | July 7, 2000
Rates of Return from Social Security
Economic Letter 1999-34 | November 12, 1999
Output and Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
Economic Letter 1999-18 | May 28, 1999 | with Thalhammer
Can the Stock Market Save Social Security?
Economic Letter 1998-37 | December 11, 1998