
Mark Spiegel
Senior Policy Advisor
International, Growth, Banking, Asian economies
CV (pdf, 190.44 kb)
Working Papers
Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization
2023-13 | with Liu and Zhang | April 2023
abstract (+)Fiscal Capacity and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19
2022-04 | with Aizenman and Jinjarak | March 2023
abstract (+)Domestic Bond Markets and Inflation
2015-05 | with Rose | February 2015
abstract (+)Modernization and Discrete Measures of Democracy
2014-01 | with Benhabib and Corvalan | January 2014
abstract (+)Developing Asian Local Currency Bond Markets:Why and How?
ADB Institute Working Paper 182 | December 2009
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Competitive Effects of IPOs: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions
Forthcoming in Journal of Money Credit and Banking | with Packer
abstract (+)Fiscal Capacity and Commercial Bank lending Under COVID-19
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 68, June 2023 | with Aizenman and Jinjarek
abstract (+)Capital Flows and Income Inequality
Journal of International Economics 144 (103776), 2023 | with Liu and Zhang
abstract (+)Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Journal of International Money and Finance 131, March 2023 | with Christensen
abstract (+)Small Business Lending under the PPP and PPPLF Programs
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53(101017), January 2023 | with Lopez
abstract (+)Monetary Reforms and Inflation Expectations in Japan: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Journal of Econometrics 231(2), December 2022, 410-431 | with Christensen
abstract (+)Monetary Policy Spillovers Under COVID-19: Evidence from Lending by U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries
Journal of International Money and Finance 122, April 2022, 102550
abstract (+)Monetary Policy under Global Uncertainty: 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Summary
Journal of International Money and Finance 114, June 2021, 1-2 | with Liu
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (Reprint)
Journal of International Money and Finance 114(102406), June 2021 | with Fernald and Hsu
abstract (+)Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
Journal of International Money and Finance 110(102262), February 2021 | with Fernald and Hsu
abstract (+)Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 1041-1061 | with Liu and Zhang
abstract (+)Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence
European Economic Review 124, May 2020 | with Lopez and Rose
abstract (+)Home Currency Issuance in International Bond Markets
Journal of International Economics 122, January 2020 | with Hale and Jones
abstract (+)Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 103, May 2019, 33-51 | with Chang, Liu, and Zhang
abstract (+)Sentiments and U.S. Economic Activity: Evidence from States
Economic Journal 129(618), February 2019, 715-733 | with Benhabib
abstract (+)Bank Performance Under Negative Rates
Voxeu, 2018 | with Lopez and Rose
abstract (+)Bond Vigilantes and Inflation
International Journal of Central Banking 14(2), March 2018, 263-299 | with Rose
abstract (+)International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Factor-Augmented Vetor Autoregressive Approach
Pacific Economic Review 23(1), February 2018, 51-66 | with Tai
abstract (+)Dollar Appreciation and Asian Economies
Vox China, 2017 | with Liu and Tai
abstract (+)Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR Approach
Journal of International Money and Finance 74, June 2017, 353-370 | with Liu and Tai
abstract (+)Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 74, September 2015, 1-15 | with Chang and Liu
abstract (+)Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy
IMF Economic Review 63, September 2015, 298-324 | with Liu
abstract (+)Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
Journal of International Money and Finance 49(part A), December 2014, 83-103 | with Fernald and Swanson
abstract (+)Foreign Entry into Underwriting Services: Evidence from the Japanese Big Bang Deregulation
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46, 2014, 445-468 | with Lopez
abstract (+)Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?
Pacific Economic Review 18(3), August 2013, 345-369 | with Leduc
abstract (+)Income and Democracy: Evidence from Nonlinear Estimations
Economics Letters 118(3), March 2013, 489-492 | with Benhabib and Corvalan
abstract (+)Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements during the Global Financial Crisis
Journal of International Economics 88(2), November 2012, 326-340 | with Rose
abstract (+)Currency Composition of International Bonds: The EMU Effect
Journal of International Economics 88(1), September 2012, 134-149 | with Hale
abstract (+)Central Bank Swaps and International Dollar Illiquidity
Global Journal of Economics 1(1), June 2012, 1-20 | with Rose
abstract (+)Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning
Japan and the World Economy 24(1), January 2012, 1-16 | with Rose
abstract (+)Developing Asian Local Currency Bond Markets: Why and How?
In Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, eds. Kawai, Masahiro, David G. Mayes, Peter J. Morgan, Chapter 11 | Asia Development Bank Institute, 2012. 221-227
abstract (+)Bond Currency Denomination and the Yen Carry Trade
In Asia and China in the Global Economy, ed. by Y W Cheung and G Ma, 2012. 245-282 | with Candelaria and Lopez
abstract (+)The Olympic Effect
Economic Journal 121(553), June 2011, 652-677 | with Rose
abstract (+)Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update
European Economic Review 55(3), April 2011, 309-324 | with Rose
abstract (+)Asset Price Persistance and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values
Real Estate Economics 38(2), December 2010, 171-196 | with Krainer and Yamori
abstract (+)Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure
Pacific Economic Review 15(3), August 2010, 340-363 | with Rose
abstract (+)Takeoffs
Review of Development Economics 14(2), May 2010, 177-196 | with Aizenman
abstract (+)The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning
Global Journal of Economics, 2010 | with Rose
abstract (+)International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce
In The Gravity Model in International Trade, ed. by Van Bergeijk and Brakman | Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 255-277 | with Rose
Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?
Review of International Economics 17(4), September 2009, 751-776
abstract (+)International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility
Journal of Development Economics 89(2), July 2009, 250-257 | with Rose
abstract (+)Monetary and Financial Integration: Evidence from the EMU
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 23(2), June 2009, 114-130
abstract (+)Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 41(4), June 2009, 787-798 | with Benhabib
abstract (+)Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 41(2-3), March 2009, 337-363 | with Rose
abstract (+)Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy Discipline: A Survey with New Evidence from Financial Remoteness
IMF Staff Papers 56, February 2009, 198-221
abstract (+)Foreign Intermediation in Japan During the Lost Decade
In China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions, Proceedings of the 2006 Asian Pacific Economic Association Conference, ed. by Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong | London: Routledge, 2008. 197-214 | with Lopez
abstract (+)Offshore Financial Centres: Parasites or Symbionts?
Economic Journal 117(523), October 2007, 1310-1335 | with Rose
abstract (+)Market Price Accounting and Depositor Discipline: The Case of Japanese Regional Banks
Journal of Banking and Finance 31(3), March 2007, 769-786 | with Yamori
abstract (+)Quantitative Easing and Japanese Bank Equity Values
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 20(4), December 2006, 699-721 | with Kobayashi and Yamori
abstract (+)Institutional Efficiency, Monitoring Costs, and the Investment Share of FDI
Review of International Economics 14(4), September 2006, 683-697 | with Aizenman
abstract (+)Determinants of Voluntary Bank Disclosure: Evidence from Japanese Shinkin Banks
In Japan’s Great Stagnation, ed. by M. Hutchison and F. Westermann | Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2006. 103-128 | with Yamori
abstract (+)Human Capital and Technology Diffusion
In Handbook of Economic Growth, 1A, Chap. 13, ed. by Aghion and Durlauf | Amsterdam: North Holland, 2006. 936-966 | with Benhabib
abstract (+)Solvency Runs, Sunspot Runs, and International Bailouts
Journal of International Economics 65(1), January 2005, 203-219
abstract (+)Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Performance over the Short and Long Run
In Macroeconomic Implications of Post-Crisis Structural Changes, ed. by L.J. Cho, D. Cho, and Y.H. Kim | Seoul: Korea Development Institute, 2005. 75-103 | with Lopez
abstract (+)Sterilization Costs and Exchange Rate Targeting
Journal of International Money and Finance 23(6), October 2004, 897-915 | with Kletzer
abstract (+)The Evolution of Bank Resolution Policies in Japan: Evidence from Market Equity Values
Journal of Financial Research 27(1), Spring 2004, 115-132 | with Yamori
abstract (+)A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit
International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 51, Special Issue, 2004, 50-63 | with Rose
abstract (+)Currency Boards, Dollarized Liabilities, and Monetary Policy Credibility
Journal of International Money and Finance 22(7), December 2003, 1065-1087 | with Valderrama
abstract (+)Review of Malaysian Eclipse: Economic Crisis and Recovery
Journal of Comparative Economics 31(3), September 2003, 593-594
The Impact of Japan’s Financial Stabilization Laws on Bank Equity Values
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17(3), September 2003, 263-282 | with Yamori
abstract (+)Financial Turbulence and the Japanese Main Bank Relationship
Journal of Financial Services Research 23(3), June 2003, 205-223 | with Yamori
abstract (+)Financial Development and Growth: Are the APEC Nations Unique?
In 2001 APEC World Economic Outlook Symposium Proceedings | APEC, 2002. 79-106
abstract (+)Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: An Introductory Overview
In Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, ed. by Glick, Moreno, and Spiegel | New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. 1-34 | with Glick and Moreno
Monetary Union Expansion: The Role of Market Power in Trade
In International Finance Review, Special Issue on European Monetary Union and Capital Markets, Vol 2, ed. by Choi and Wrase | Oxford: Elsevier, 2001
abstract (+)The Role of Financial Development in Growth and Investment
Journal of Economic Growth 5(4), December 2000, 341-360 | with Benhabib
abstract (+)Bank Charter Value and the Viability of the Japanese Convoy System
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 14(3), September 2000, 149-168
abstract (+)Speculative Capital Inflows and Exchange Rate Targeting in the Pacific Basin: Theory and Evidence
In Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Pacific Basin, ed. by Glick | New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. 409-436 | with Kletzer
North-South Customs Unions and International Capital Mobility
Journal of International Economics 46, 1998, 229-251 | with Fernandez-Arias
Inequality and Stability
Annales d’Economie et de Statistique 48, 1997, 15-40 | with Barbosa and Jovanovic
Are Asian Economies Exempt from the ‘Impossible Trinity’? Evidence from Singapore
In Proceedings of the 12th Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference on The Impact of Financial Market Development on the Real Economy | Singapore: Monetary Authority of Singapore, 1997. 9-27 | with Moreno
Does State Economic Development Spending Increase Manufacturing Employment?
Journal of Urban Economics 41, 1997, 153-175 | with de Bartolome
Heterogeneity in Bank Valuation of LDC Debt: Evidence from the 1988 Brazilian Debt Reduction Program
Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 1997, 535-550 | with Demirguc-Kunt and Diwan
Burden Sharing in Sovereign Debt Reduction
Journal of Development Economics 50, August 1996, 337-352
Regional Competition for Domestic and Foreign Investment: Evidence from State Development Expenditures
Journal of Urban Economics 37, 1995, 239-259 | with de Bartolome
Threshold Effects in International Lending
Journal of Development Economics 46, April 1995, 341-356
Are Buybacks Back? Menu-Driven Debt-Reduction Schemes with Heterogeneous Creditors
Journal of Monetary Economics 34, October 1994, 279-293 | with Diwan
The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data
Journal of Monetary Economics 34, October 1994, 143-174 | with Benhabib
Sovereign Risk Exposure with Potential Liquidation: The Performance of Alternative Forms of External Finance
Journal of International Money and Finance 13, August 1994, 400-414
The Role of Human Capital and Political Instability in Economic Development
In International Differences in Growth Rates, ed. by Baldassari, Paganetto, and Phelps | New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994. 55-94 | with Benhabib
Debt Write-Downs and Debt Equity Swaps in a Two-Sector Model
Journal of International Economics 33, November 1992, 267-283 | with Goldberg
Concerted Lending: Did Large Banks Bear the Burden?
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 24, November 1992, 465-482
Capital Controls and Deviations from Proposed Interest Rate Parity: Mexico, 1982
Economic Inquiry 28, April 1990, 239-248
Books
Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy: Proceedings of the 2015 Asia Economic Policy Conference
2016 | San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | Editors • Glick • Spiegel
Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy: Proceedings of the 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference
2014 | San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | Editors • Glick • Spiegel
Asia’s Role in the Post-Crisis Global Economy: Proceedings of the 2011 Asia Economic Policy Conference
2012 | San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | Editors • Glick • Spiegel
Asia and the Global Financial Crisis: Proceedings of the 2009 Asia Economic Policy Conference
2010 | San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | Editors • Glick • Spiegel
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
2001 | New York: Cambridge University Press | Editors • Glick • Moreno • Spiegel
FRBSF Publications
Small Business Lending and the Paycheck Protection Program
Economic Letter 2023-10 | April 10, 2023 | with Mueller
COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan
Economic Letter 2022-20 | August 3, 2022 | with Christensen
Capital Flow Surges and Rising Income Inequality
Economic Letter 2021-09 | March 29, 2021 | with Diwan and Liu
Small Business Lending during COVID-19
Economic Letter 2020-35 | November 23, 2020 | with Beauregard and Lopez
Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates
Economic Letter 2020-29 | September 28, 2020 | with Beauregard
Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19
SF Fed Blog | 2020 | with Beauregard and Fernald
How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT
Economic Letter 2019-26 | October 7, 2019 | with Fernald and Gerstein
Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan
Economic Letter 2019-22 | August 26, 2019 | with Christensen
How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks?
Economic Letter 2018-22 | October 1, 2018 | with Benhabib and B. Shapiro
Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity?
Economic Letter 2018-14 | May 29, 2018 | with Liu and Tallman
Is Boomer Retirement Still Weighing Down U.S. Equity Markets?
SF Fed Blog | Mar 2018 | with Liu
Reserve Requirements as a Chinese Macro Policy Tool
Economic Letter 2017-15 | May 22, 2017 | with Liu
China’s IPO Activity and Equity Market Volatility
Economic Letter 2016-18 | June 6, 2016 | with Packer
Do Local Bond Markets Help Fight Inflation?
Economic Letter 2016-10 | March 28, 2016 | with Rose
Interview with John Williams about China’s Growth Prospects
FRBSF 2015 Annual Report | Feb 2016 | with Liu and Nechio
Global Fallout from China’s Industrial Slowdown
Economic Letter 2015-35 | November 23, 2015
Global Aging: More Headwinds for U.S. Stocks?
Economic Letter 2014-38 | December 22, 2014 | with Liu and Wang
Has China’s Economy Become More “Standard”?
Economic Letter 2014-30 | October 6, 2014 | with Fernald and Hsu
Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy
Economic Letter 2014-26 | September 2, 2014 | with Glick
Home Currency Issuance in Global Debt Markets
Economic Letter 2014-24 | August 18, 2014 | with Hale and Jones
On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures
Economic Letter 2013-08 | March 25, 2013 | with Fernald and Malkin
External Shocks and China’s Monetary Policy
Economic Letter 2012-36 | December 3, 2012 | with Liu
Is China Due for a Slowdown?
Economic Letter 2012-31 | October 15, 2012 | with Malkin
Asia’s Role in the Post-Crisis Global Economy
Economic Letter 2012-24 | August 13, 2012 | with Glick
Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?
Economic Letter 2011-26 | August 22, 2011 | with Liu
Asia and the Global Financial Crisis: Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2010-08 | March 15, 2010 | with Glick
Predicting Crises, Part II: Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)?
Economic Letter 2009-30 | September 28, 2009 | with Rose
The EMU Effect on the Currency Denomination of International Bonds
Economic Letter 2008-30 | September 26, 2008 | with Hale
The Role of Relative Performance in Bank Closure Decisions
Economic Review | 2008 | with Kasa
Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy
Economic Letter 2007-34 | November 23, 2007
Did Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan “Work”?
Economic Letter 2006-28 | October 20, 2006
External Imbalances and Adjustment in the Pacific Basin: Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2006-04 | March 10, 2006 | with Glick
The Bretton Woods System: Are We Experiencing a Revival? Symposium Summary
Economic Letter 2005-32 | November 25, 2005 | with Glick
A Look at China’s New Exchange Rate Regime
Economic Letter 2005-23 | September 9, 2005
Easing Out of the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Easing Policy
Economic Letter 2004-33 | November 19, 2004
Monetary and Financial Integration: Evidence from the EMU
Economic Letter 2004-20 | August 6, 2004
Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention
Economic Letter 2003-36 | December 12, 2003
What Monetary Regime for Post-War Iraq?
Economic Letter 2003-13 | May 9, 2003
Argentina’s Currency Crisis: Lessons for Asia
Economic Letter 2002-25 | August 23, 2002
Towards a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism
Economic Letter 2002-19 | June 28, 2002
The Disposition of Failed Japanese Bank Assets: Lessons from the U.S. Savings and Loan Crisis
Economic Review | 2002
Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan
Economic Letter 2001-31 | November 2, 2001
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
Economic Letter 2001-07 | March 23, 2001 | with Glick and Moreno
The Return of the “Japan Premium”: Trouble Ahead for Japanese Banks?
Economic Letter 2001-06 | March 9, 2001
Short-term International Borrowing and Financial Fragility
Economic Letter 2000-26 | September 8, 2000
Inflation Targeting for the Bank of Japan?
Economic Letter 2000-11 | April 7, 2000