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Recent Publications

FedViews

Posted January 14, 2019

Galina Hale, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated her views on the current economy and the outlook as of January 10, 2019.

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Economic Letter

Posted February 19, 2019
Galina Hale, Jose A. Lopez, and Shannon Sledz

The financial crisis provided a stark example of how interconnected the financial system is. Since then, researchers have developed several ways to monitor patterns of connectedness within the banking system. A key challenge is removing the impact of conditions that affect all banks in order to highlight evidence of direct connectedness. A new measure filters these common factors from bank stock market data. Estimates using this method show how different assumptions can affect conclusions about the connections among banks.

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Working Paper

Posted February 1, 2019
Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, Galina Hale, and Eric Tallman

Why was recovery from the euro area crisis delayed for a decade? The explanation lies in the absence of credible and timely policies to backstop financial intermediaries and sovereign debt markets. In this paper we add light and color to this analysis, contrasting recent experience with the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System, when national central banks and treasuries more successfully provided this backstop. In the more recent episode, the incomplete development of the euro area constrained the ability of the ECB and other European institutions to do likewise.

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Indicators and Data

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.

PCE Inflation Dispersion

PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.

Tech Pulse

The Tech Pulse Index is an index of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. It can be interpreted as a summary statistic that tracks the health of the tech sector in a timely manner.

Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.

Treasury Yield Premiums

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Wage Rigidity Meter

The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.

Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.

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