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Recent Publications

FedViews

Posted May 14, 2018

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, senior research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of May 10, 2018.

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Economic Letter

Posted May 21, 2018
John C. Williams

In the current economic environment, it’s important to distinguish between the strong economic conditions and the key longer-run drivers underpinning interest rates. Three factors—demographics, productivity growth, and the demand for safe assets—all point to the natural rate of interest, known as r-star, remaining low for quite some time. The following is adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis on May 15.

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Working Paper

Posted March 1, 2018
Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and M. Saif Mehkari

We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the estimated positive local multiplier, a result that distinguishes our incomplete markets model from models with complete markets. The aggregate consumption multiplier is 0.4, which implies an output multiplier higher than one. The aggregate consumption multiplier is almost twice the local estimate because trade linkages propagate government spending across regions.

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Indicators and Data

PCE Inflation Dispersion

PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.

Tech Pulse

The Tech Pulse Index is an index of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. It can be interpreted as a summary statistic that tracks the health of the tech sector in a timely manner.

Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.

Treasury Yield Premiums

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Wage Rigidity Meter

The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.

Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.

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The Center for Pacific Basin Studies promotes cooperation among central banks in the Pacific Basin and provides insight into and analysis of economic policy issues affecting the region.

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The Thomas J. Sargent Dissertation Fellowship offers individuals an opportunity to interact with economists and visiting scholars, make progress in writing their dissertation, and increase their exposure to scholarly research.

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