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Research Spotlight

Submit Essays for the 2023 “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar Program

Posted November 23, 2022

The SF Fed’s Economic Research Department invites graduate students to apply to the 2023 “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar program by January 31, 2023.

To apply, please submit a research-based essay analyzing various aspects of gender and racial inequities, their underlying causes, and their economic consequences. Students whose essays are selected will earn the opportunity to spend six weeks working with us as summer Research Scholars.

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Recent Publications

FedViews

Posted December 2, 2022

Robert G. Valletta, associate director of research and senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of December 1, 2022.

View past FedViews

Economic Letter

Posted November 30, 2022
Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Dmitry Sergeyev

New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.

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Working Paper

Posted November 1, 2022
Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Dongling Su

The stimulus effects of expansionary fiscal policy under average inflation targeting (AIT) depends on both monetary and fiscal policy regimes. AIT features an inflation makeup under the monetary regime, but not under the fiscal regime. In normal times, AIT amplifies the short-run fiscal multipliers under both regimes while mitigating the cumulative multiplies due to intertemporal substitution. In a zero-lower-bound (ZLB) period, AIT reduces fiscal multipliers under a monetary regime by shortening the duration of the ZLB through expected inflation makeup. Under the fiscal regime, AIT has a nonlinear effect on fiscal multipliers because of the absence of inflation makeup and the presence of a nominal wealth effect.

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Indicators and Data

China Cyclical Activity Tracker

The China Cyclical Activity Tracker, China CAT, is an alternative measure of China's economic growth based on research in Fernald, Hsu, and Spiegel (2019).

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.

Daily News Sentiment Index

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.

Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19

Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 divides core personal consumption expenditures inflation into components that are sensitive and insensitive to the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.

PCE Inflation Dispersion

PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.

Proxy Funds Rate

The Proxy Funds Rate uses a broad set of financial market indicators to assess the stance of monetary policy. The proxy rate can be interpreted as indicating what federal funds rate would typically be associated with prevailing financial market conditions if the federal funds rate were the only monetary policy tool being used.

SF Fed Data Explorer

The SF Fed Data Explorer is an interactive tool that gives users the ability to explore, analyze, and download detailed data for various groups of people in the U.S. labor market. The data come from responses to the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS).

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation

Supply- versus Demand-Driven PCE Inflation determines the monthly contributions to both headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components.

Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital's workweek.

Treasury Yield Premiums

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather's employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.

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SF Fed Data Explorer

Our interactive tool gives you the ability to explore, analyze, and download detailed data for various groups of people in the U.S. labor market.

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The Center for Pacific Basin Studies promotes cooperation among central banks in the Pacific Basin and provides insight into and analysis of economic policy issues affecting the region.

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