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Research Spotlight
How Bad Is the U.S. 2020 Fire Season?
The U.S. 2020 fire season has been intense so far, especially in California and Oregon. Assessing the spread of wildfires through mid-November shows it is comparable to the two most damaging fire seasons in recent memory. However, learning the cost of actual damages will take time.
Read SF Fed Blog by Luiz E. Oliveira for more on the 2020 U.S. wildfire season, as well as our earlier FRBSF Economic Letter, Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy.
Recent Publications
FedViews
Economic Outlook
Glenn Rudebusch, executive vice president and senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of December 3, 2020.
Economic Letter
2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities
What lessons should we take from a difficult year—and what should our priorities be for 2021? Overcoming the harsh and uneven economic impacts of COVID-19 and returning to full employment and sustainable 2% inflation will be the Federal Reserve’s chief concerns. But success will require us to have confidence in the power of our tools. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Arizona State University Economic Forecast Luncheon on December 1.
Working Paper
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
With business leverage at record levels, the effects of corporate debt overhang on growth and investment have become a prominent concern. In this paper, we study the effects of corporate debt overhang based on long-run cross-country data covering the near universe modern business cycles. We show that business credit booms typically do not leave a lasting imprint on the macroeconomy. Quantile local projections indicate that business credit booms do not affect the economy’s tail risks either. Yet in line with theory, we find that the economic costs of corporate debt booms rise when inefficient debt restructuring and liquidation impede the resolution of corporate financial distress and make it more likely that corporate zombies creep along.
Indicators and Data
China Cyclical Activity Tracker
The China Cyclical Activity Tracker, China CAT, is an alternative measure of China’s economic growth based on research in Fernald, Hsu, and Spiegel (2019).
Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation
Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.
Daily News Sentiment Index
The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.
Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19
Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 divides core personal consumption expenditures inflation into components that are sensitive and insensitive to the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
PCE Inflation Dispersion
PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.
Tech Pulse
The Tech Pulse data updates have been discontinued.
Total Factor Productivity
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.
Treasury Yield Premiums
The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.
Wage Rigidity Meter
The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.
Weather-Adjusted Employment Change
This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.
