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Research Spotlight

Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19

Posted October 2, 2020

While China’s economy plunged following the outbreak of COVID-19, official data report that it has rebounded sharply. The San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker—or China CAT—confirms this, indicating modestly higher activity than China’s official data for the second quarter of 2020.

Learn more about China’s economic growth through quarterly updates to the China CAT data page.

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Recent Publications

FedViews

Posted October 13, 2020

Reuven Glick, group vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of October 8, 2020

View past FedViews

Economic Letter

Posted October 19, 2020
Mary C. Daly

Not every American gets the same chance at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We have to acknowledge and confront this reality—as individuals, as institutions, and as a nation. The Fed can help create more inclusive economic success by finding full employment experientially. But achieving true equality will require commitment from all of us. The following reflects remarks delivered in a virtual presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the University of California, Irvine, on October 13.

View more FRBSF Economic Letters

Working Paper

Posted October 1, 2020
Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson

Using expectations embodied in oil futures prices, we examine how expectations are formed and how they affect the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. We show that an empirical framework in which investors form expectations by learning about the persistence of oil-price movements successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. We then embed this learning mechanism in a model with oil usage and storage. Estimating the model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely account for investors' perceptions that oil-price movements became increasingly permanent during the 2000s before declining thereafter. We show that the presence of learning alters the macroeconomic impact of shocks, making the responses time-dependent and conditional on the views of economic agents about the shocks' likely persistence.

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Indicators and Data

China Cyclical Activity Tracker

The China Cyclical Activity Tracker, China CAT, is an alternative measure of China’s economic growth based on research in Fernald, Hsu, and Spiegel (2019).

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.

Daily News Sentiment Index

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.

Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19

Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 divides core personal consumption expenditures inflation into components that are sensitive and insensitive to the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.

PCE Inflation Dispersion

PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.

Tech Pulse

The Tech Pulse data updates have been discontinued.

Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.

Treasury Yield Premiums

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Wage Rigidity Meter

The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.

Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.

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