Working Papers
The latest in economic research
2023

Labor Market Stability and Fertility Decisions
Joan Monras • Eduardo Polo-Muro • Javier Vazquez-Grenno | November 2023
A Financial New Keynesian Model
Thomas M. Mertens • Tony Zhang | November 2023
The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty
Gara Afonso • Gabriele La Spada • Thomas M. Mertens • John C. Williams | November 2023
The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries
Robert E. Hall • Marianna Kudlyak | November 2023
Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time
Carlos Carvalho • Andrea Ferrero • Felipe Mazin • Fernanda Nechio | November 2023
Perceptions about Monetary Policy
Michael D. Bauer • Carolin E. Pflueger • Adi Sunderam | October 2023
The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act
Michael D. Bauer • Eric A. Offner • Glenn D. Rudebusch | September 2023
Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic
John Fernald • Huiyu Li | September 2023
The Effect of Second-Generation Rent Controls: New Evidence from Catalonia
Joan Monras • Jose G. Montalvo | September 2023
Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work After Childbirth
Elira Kuka • Na’ama Shenhav | June 2023
Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity
Clement Imbert • Joan Monras • Marlon Seror • Yanos Zylberberg | August 2023
Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer
Brandyn Bok • Richard K. Crump • Christopher J. Nekarda • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau | August 2023
Passive Quantitative Easing: Bond Supply Effects through a Halt to Debt Issuance
Jens H. E. Christensen • Simon Thinggaard Hetland | August 2023
Quantitative Easing and Safe Asset Scarcity: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia
Jens H. E. Christensen • Nikola Mirkov • Xin Zhang | August 2023
Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity
Katheryn N. Russ • Jay C. Shambaugh • Sanjay R. Singh | June 2023
Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
Antonio Fatas • Sanjay R. Singh | June 2023
The Financial Origins of Non-Fundamental Risk
Sushant Acharya • Keshav Dogra • Sanjay R. Singh | May 2023
Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework
Jean-Paul L’Huillier • Sanjay R. Singh • Donghoon Yoo | March 2023
Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios
John Krainer • Pascal Paul | July 2023
Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy
Sylvain Leduc • Daniel J. Wilson | November 2023
Local Projections for Applied Economics
Oscar Jorda | July 2023
Significance Bands for Local Projections
Atsushi Inoue • Oscar Jorda • Guido M. Kuersteiner | May 2023
Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier
Piergiorgio Alessandri • Oscar Jorda • Fabrizio Venditti | May 2023
Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization
Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel • Jingyi Zhang | November 2023
A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies
Arindrajit Dube • Daniele Girardi • Oscar Jorda • Alan M. Taylor | April 2023
The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland
Simon Kwan • Mauricio Ulate • Ville Voutilainen | April 2023
The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor
Mark Bils • Marianna Kudlyak • Paulo Lins | March 2023
The Canary in the Coal Decline: Appalachian Household Finance and the Transition from Fossil Fuels
Joshua Blonz • Brigitte Roth Tran • Erin Troland | April 2023
Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
Mauricio Ulate • Jose P. Vasquez • Roman D. Zarate | February 2023
The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?
John Fernald • Robert Inklaar • Dimitrije Ruzic | February 2023
Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
Maximilian Grimm • Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | February 2023
State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
James S. Cloyne • Oscar Jorda • Alan M. Taylor | February 2023
The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market
Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo • Jens Henrik Eggert Christensen | February 2023
A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away
Abe Dunn • Joshua D. Gottlieb • Adam Hale Shapiro • Daniel J. Sonnenstuhl • Pietro Tebaldi | January 2023
Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms
Galina Hale • John Leer • Fernanda Nechio | January 2023
Fiscal Policies for Job Creation and Innovation: The Experiences of US States
Robert S. Chirinko • Daniel J. Wilson | January 2023
2022

Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting
Zheng Liu • Jianjun Miao • Dongling Su | April 2023
Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment
Gregory Casey • Stephie Fried • and Matthew Gibson | October 2022
Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics
Gregory Casey • Stephie Fried • Ethan Goode | August 2022
The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output
John Fernald • Huiyu Li | September 2022
Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation
Adam Hale Shapiro | October 2022
Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
Oscar Jorda • Fernanda Nechio | April 2023
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Denis Gorea • Oleksiy Kryvtsov • Marianna Kudlyak | August 2022
A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
Regis Barnichon • Geert Mesters | April 2022
Evergreening
Miguel Faria-e-Castro • Pascal Paul • Juan M. Sánchez | August 2023
Dynastic Home Equity
Matteo Benetton • Marianna Kudlyak • John Mondragon | July 2022
Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates
Cynthia Balloch • Yann Koby • Mauricio Ulate | June 2022
Housing Demand and Remote Work
John Mondragon • Johannes Wieland | May 2022
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
Marianna Kudlyak • Murat Tasci • Didem Tuzemen | January 2023
In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate
Wataru Miyamoto • Thuy Lan Nguyen • Hyunseung Oh | April 2022
Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
John Fernald | March 2022
The UK Productivity "Puzzle" in an International Comparative Perspective
John Fernald • Robert Inklaar | March 2022
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Brandyn Bok • Thomas M. Mertens • and John C. Williams | June 2023
Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms
Hamid Firooz • Zheng Liu • Yajie Wang | November 2023
Fiscal Capacity and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19
Joshua Aizenman • Yothin Jinjarak • Mark M. Spiegel | March 2023
The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States
Sylvain Leduc • Daniel Wilson | February 2022
Sellin' in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales
Brigitte Roth Tran | February 2022
On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
Tristan Potter • Bart Hobijn • Andre Kurmann | February 2022
2021

Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Jens H. E. Christensen • Mark M. Spiegel | August 2022
Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics
Mathias S. Kruttli • Brigitte Roth Tran • Sumudu W. Watugala | September 2023
Turbulent Business Cycles
Ding Dong • Zheng Liu • Pengfei Wang | November 2023
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
Timo Boppart • Huiyu Li | September 2021
The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment
Robert E. Hall • Marianna Kudlyak | June 2022
International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities
Jens H. E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Paul L. Mussche | July 2021
From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective
Brent Bundick • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau | July 2021
The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
Robert E. Hall • Marianna Kudlyak | February 2022
Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk
Ester Faia • Ekaterina Shabalina • and Marianna Kudlyak | June 2021
Fiscal Foresight and Perverse Distortions to Firm Behavior: Anticipatory Dips and Compensating Rebounds
Robert S. Chirinko • Daniel J. Wilson | March 2023
Monetary Policy Spillovers Under Covid-19: Evidence from U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries
Mark M. Spiegel | June 2021
UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Robert G. Valletta | May 2023
Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
Troy Davig • Andrew Foerster | September 2022
The Economic Gains from Equity
Shelby R. Buckman • Laura Y. Choi • Mary C. Daly • Lily M. Seitelman | April 2021
Small Business Lending Under the PPP and PPPLF Programs
Jose A. Lopez • Mark M. Spiegel | April 2021
The Impact of COVID on Potential Output
John Fernald • Huiyu Li | March 2021
Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Remy Beauregard • Jens H. E. Christensen • Eric Fischer • Simon Zhu | November 2021
Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation
Stephie Fried | January 2021
Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy
Stephie Fried • Kevin Novan • William B. Peterman | June 2022
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession
Leila Bengali • Mary C. Daly • Olivia Lofton • Robert G. Valletta | March 2021
Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market
Olivia Lofton • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Lily Seitelman | February 2021
Clouded in Uncertainty: Pursuing Financial Stability with Monetary Policy
Sylvain Leduc | January 2021
Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Kevin J. Lansing | March 2023
Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign
Regis Barnichon • Davide Debortoli • Christian Matthes | January 2021
2020

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
Òscar Jordà • Martin Kornejew • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | December 2020
Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada
Jens H. E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch • Patrick J. Shultz | July 2023
The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters
Brigitte Roth Tran • Daniel Wilson | February 2023
Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications
Sylvain Leduc • Kevin Moran • Robert J. Vigfusson | October 2020
Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock
Andres Rodrıguez-Clare • Mauricio Ulate • Jose P. Vasquez | March 2022
Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory
Mauricio Ulate | September 2020
Competitive Effects of IPOS: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions
Frank Packer • Mark M. Spiegel | September 2020
A Simple Framework to Monitor Inflation
Adam Hale Shapiro | June 2022
Reservation Benefits: Assessing Job Acceptance Impacts of Increased UI Payments
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau | August 2020
Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China
Xiaoming Li • Zheng Liu • Yuchao Peng • Zhiwei Xu | July 2023
The Credit Line Channel
Daniel L. Greenwald • John Krainer • Pascal Paul | August 2023
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
Michael D. Bauer • Glenn D. Rudebusch | June 2021
Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
Shelby R. Buckman • Reuven Glick • Kevin J. Lansing • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Lily M. Seitelman | July 2020
Weather, Mobility, and COVID-19: A Panel Local Projections Estimator for Understanding and Forecasting Infectious Disease Spread
Daniel J. Wilson | February 2021
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
John Fernald • Robert Inklaar | June 2020
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB
Robert Amano • Stefano Gnocchi • Sylvain Leduc • Joel Wagner | June 2020
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
Robert E. Hall • Marianna Kudlyak | May 2020
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Sylvain Leduc • Zheng Liu | May 2020
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Robert G. Valletta | September 2020
World Productivity: 1996-2014
Mehrdad Esfahani • John G. Fernald • Bart Hobijn | March 2020
Innovative Growth Accounting
Peter J. Klenow • Huiyu Li | April 2020
Learning about Regime Change
Andrew Foerster • Christian Matthes | December 2021
Capital Flows and Income Inequality
Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel • Jingyi Zhang | March 2023
The Costs of Payment Uncertainty in Healthcare Markets
Abe Dunn • Joshua D. Gottlieb • Adam Shapiro • Pietro Tebaldi | April 2020
Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
James S. Cloyne • Oscar Jorda • Alan M. Taylor | September 2020
Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | August 2020
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Gianluca Benigno • Andrew Foerster • Christopher Otrok • Alessandro Rebucci, | July 2021
Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
Oscar Jorda • Sanjay R. Singh • Alan M. Taylor | June 2020
Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence
Lukas Hoesch • Barbara Rossi • Tatevik Sekhposyan | March 2020
Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Pascal Paul | October 2022
An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
Michael D. Bauer • Eric T. Swanson | September 2021
Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?
Andreas Hornstein • Marianna Kudlyak | February 2020
Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Giancarlo Corsetti • Luca Dedola • Sylvain Leduc | February 2020
The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope
Martin Blomhoff Holm • Pascal Paul • Andreas Tischbirek | February 2021
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
Francis X. Diebold • Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2020
The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
Oscar Jorda • Sanjay R. Singh • Alan M. Taylor | May 2023
2019

Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed
Thomas C. Buchmueller • Helen Levy • Robert G. Valletta | December 2019
The Safety Premium of Safe Assets
Jens H. E. Christensen • Nikola Mirkov | September 2022
Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
Peter Lihn Jorgensen • Kevin J. Lansing | February 2023
Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk
Robert Amano • Thomas J. Carter • Sylvain Leduc | October 2019
Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy
Enrico Moretti • Daniel J. Wilson | October 2019
BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws
Han Hong • Huiyu Li • Jessie Li | October 2019
Corporate Yields and Sovereign Yields
Julia Bevilaqua • Galina B. Hale • Eric Tallman | September 2019
Complexity of Global Banks and Their Foreign Operation in Hong Kong
Simon H. Kwan • Kelvin Ho • Edward Tan | September 2019
Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates
Mauricio Ulate | September 2019
Riders on the Storm
Òscar Jordà • Alan M. Taylor | September 2019
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
John G. Fernald • Eric Hsu • Mark M. Spiegel | August 2019
R* and the Global Economy
Reuven Glick | August 2019
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Sylvain Leduc • Zheng Liu | February 2023
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
Andrew Foerster • Andreas Hornstein • Pierre-Daniel Sarte • Mark Watson | January 2022
Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds
Jens H. E. Christensen • Mark M. Spiegel | October 2019
Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens • John C. Williams | August 2019
Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities
Bart Hobijn • Fernanda Nechio • Adam Hale Shapiro | April 2019
Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty
Michael Bauer • Aeimit Lakdawala • Philippe Mueller | December 2019
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents
Philippe Aghion • Antonin Bergeaud • Timo Boppart • Peter J. Klenow • Huiyu Li, | October 2022
The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | March 2019
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Ding Dong • Zheng Liu • Pengfei Wang • Tao Zha | May 2022
Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?
Jens H. E. Christensen • Eric Fischer • Patrick Shultz | December 2019
Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Andreas Hornstein • Marianna Kudlyak | February 2019
Tracking Financial Fragility
Paolo Giordani • Simon Kwan | February 2019
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
Robert E. Hall • Marianna Kudlyak | January 2020
The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis
Giancarlo Corsetti • Barry Eichengreen • Galina Hale • Eric Tallman | February 2019
Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
Jason Choi • Andrew Foerster | September 2020
Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis
Adam Hale Shapiro • Daniel Wilson | November 2019
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens • John C. Williams | June 2019
2018

Inflation Globally
Òscar Jordà • Fernanda Nechio | December 2018
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?
Kevin J. Lansing • Stephen F. LeRoy • Jun Ma | January 2022
When Hosios Meets Phillips: Connecting Efficiency and Stability to Demand Shocks
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Etienne Wasmer • Philippe Weil | February 2021
Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs
Troy Davig • Andrew Foerster | September 2018
Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio • Tiago Tristao | September 2021
Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China
Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel • Jingyi Zhang | May 2020
Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement
Jens H. E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Paul L. Mussche | May 2019
Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation
Kevin J. Lansing | August 2018
Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence
Jose A. Lopez • Andrew K. Rose • Mark M. Spiegel | June 2018
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I
Jose A. Lopez • Kris James Mitchener | June 2018
Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor • Felix Ward | May 2018
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Bill Dupor • Marios Karabarbounis • Marianna Kudlyak • M. Saif Mehkari | December 2022
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
Thomas M. Mertens • John C. Williams | September 2020
U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending
Stefan Avdjiev • Galina Hale | January 2018
Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data
Galina Hale • Jose A. Lopez | April 2018
2017

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
Oscar Jorda • Katharina Knoll • Dmitry Kuvshinov • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | December 2017
Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound
Kevin J. Lansing | November 2019
Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises
Pascal Paul | March 2022
A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises
Pascal Paul | November 2019
Term Structure Analysis with Big Data
Martin M. Andreasen • Jens H. E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch | September 2017
Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories
Marianna Kudlyak • Fabian Lange | January 2018
Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
Lamont Black • John Krainer • Joseph Nichols | September 2017
Leaning Against the Credit Cycle
Paolo Gelain • Kevin J. Lansing • Gisle J. Natvik | August 2017
Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability
Scott A. Brave • Jose A. Lopez | August 2017
Interest Rates Under Falling Stars
Michael D. Bauer • Glenn D. Rudebusch | October 2019
Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations
Zheng Liu • Pengfei Wang • Zhiwei Xu | January 2020
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
John G. Fernald • Robert E. Hall • James H. Stock • Mark W. Watson | June 2017
Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses
Daniel J. Wilson | September 2017
Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio | September 2017
The TIPS Liquidity Premium
Martin M. Andreasen • Jens H. E. Christensen • Simon Riddell | July 2020
Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?
Jens H. E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Patrick Shultz, | September 2017
The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices
Pascal Paul | April 2019
International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach
Mark M. Spiegel • Andrew Tai | April 2017
A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt
Jens H. E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch | February 2019
Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
Oscar Jorda • Bjorn Richter • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | March 2017
Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market
Andreas Hornstein • Marianna Kudlyak | February 2017
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
Philippe Aghion • Antonin Bergeaud • Timo Boppart • Peter J. Klenow • Huiyu Li | August 2018
De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss
Rhys M. Bidder • John R. Krainer • Adam H. Shapiro | December 2019
The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | May 2018
Measuring News Sentiment
Adam Hale Shapiro • Moritz Sudhof • Daniel Wilson | March 2020
2016

Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit
Andra C. Ghent • Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016
Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach
Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel • Andrew Tai | November 2016
“Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
Paul R. Bergin • Reuven Glick • Jyh-Lin Wu | October 2016
Mortgage Selection: Interactive Effects of House Price Appreciation and Mortgage Pricing Components
Frederick Furlong • Yelena Takhtamanova • David Lang | March 2019
Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade
Reuven Glick | October 2016
Stress Testing with Misspecified Models
Rhys Bidder • Raffaella Giacomini • Andrew McKenna | September 2016
FDI Effects on the Labor Market of Host Countries
Galina Hale • Mingzhi Xu | September 2016
Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort
Andreas Hornstein • Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016
Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | September 2016
Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis
Marianna Kudlyak • Juan M. Sanchez | December 2016
The Impact of Weather on Local Employment: Using Big Data on Small Places
Daniel J. Wilson | June 2017
Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data
Olivier Coibion • Yuriy Gorodnichenko • Marianna Kudlyak • John Mondragon | August 2016
Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States
Jess Benhabib • Mark M. Spiegel | October 2017
Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?
John G. Fernald | August 2016
Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?
Robert G. Valletta | August 2016
The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment
Tarek A. Hassan • Thomas M. Mertens | August 2016
A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization
Tarek A. Hassan • Thomas M. Mertens • Tony Zhang | May 2020
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Canyon Bosler • Mary C. Daly • John G. Fernald • Bart Hobijn | July 2016
The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration
R. Jason Faberman • Marianna Kudlyak | July 2016
A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing
Jens H. E. Christensen • Signe Krogstrup | February 2018
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
Kathryn Holston • Thomas Laubach • John C. Williams | December 2016
Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy
Chun Chang • Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel • Jingyi Zhang | March 2018
The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity
Sylvain Leduc • Zheng Liu | February 2019
The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity
Gilbert Cette • John G. Fernald • Benoit Mojon | April 2016
Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
John G. Fernald • J. Christina Wang | April 2016
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy
Carlos Carvalho • Eric Hsu • Fernanda Nechio | December 2016
Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
Carlos Carvalho • Andrea Ferrero • Fernanda Nechio | April 2016
The Intensive and Extensive Margins of Real Wage Adjustment
Mary C. Daly • Bart Hobijn | March 2016
Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?
David M. Byrne • John G. Fernald • Marshall B. Reinsdorf | March 2016
Credit-Fuelled Bubbles
Antonio Doblas-Madridy • Kevin J. Lansing | March 2016
Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects
Galina Hale • Tumer Kapan • Camelia Minoiu | June 2017
2015

Disentangling Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions in Three European Economies
Thomas Brzustowski • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Etienne Wasmer | December 2015
Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock
Tarek A. Hassan • Thomas M. Mertens • Tony Zhang | December 2015
Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy
Vasco Curdia • Michael Woodford | December 2015
Cyclical and Market Determinants of Involuntary Part-Time Employment
Robert G. Valletta • Leila Bengali • Catherine van der List | March 2018
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes
Reuven Glick • Sylvain Leduc | November 2015
Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution
Bart Hobijn • Fernanda Nechio | October 2017
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux
Thomas Laubach • John C. Williams | October 2015
Robust Bond Risk Premia
Michael D. Bauer • James D. Hamilton | May 2017
Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models
Galina Hale • John Krainer • Erin McCarthy | September 2015
Robust Stress Testing
Rhys Bidder • Andrew McKenna | September 2015
Is China Fudging its Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
John Fernald • Eric Hsu • and Mark M. Spiegel | September 2015
Currency Unions and Trade: A Post‐EMU Mea Culpa
Reuven Glick • Andrew K. Rose | July 2015
Leveraged Bubbles
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | August 2015
Bond Vigilantes and Inflation
Andrew K. Rose • Mark M. Spiegel | August 2015
Protecting Working-Age People with Disabilities: Experiences of Four Industrialized Nations
Richard V. Burkhauser • Mary C. Daly • Nicolas Ziebarth | June 2015
Physician Competition and the Provision of Care: Evidence from Heart Attacks
Abe Dunn • Adam Hale Shapiro | May 2017
The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists
Enrico Moretti • Daniel J. Wilson | March 2017
Domestic Bond Markets and Inflation
Andrew K. Rose • Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015
Does Medicare Part D Save Lives?
Abe Dunn • Adam Hale Shapiro | September 2015
The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out
Henry S. Farber • Jesse Rothstein • Robert G. Valletta | January 2015
Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach
Paolo Gelain • Kevin J. Lansing • Gisle J. Natvik | February 2018
Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
Michael D. Bauer • Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2016
2014

Betting the House
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | December 2014
A Dynamic Model of Price Signaling, Consumer Learning, and Price Adjustment
Matthew Osborne • Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2014
Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment
William A. Branch • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Guillaume Rocheteau | November 2014
The International Transmission of Shocks through the Lens of Foreign Banks in Hong Kong
Simon H. Kwan • Kelvin Ho • Cho-hoi Hui • Eric T.C. Wong | January 2023
Shopping Time
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau • Etienne Wasmer • Shutian Zeng | September 2014
The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | September 2014
Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations
Kevin J. Lansing • Jun Ma | June 2016
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela • Bart Hobijn • Powen She • Ludo Visschers | August 2014
Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending
Eugenio Cerutti • Galina Hale • Camelia Minoiu | August 2014
The Rise in Home Currency Issuance
Galina Hale • Peter Jones • Mark M. Spiegel | May 2016
Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves
Jens H.E. Christensen • Signe Krogstrup | June 2016
Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio • Fang Yao | April 2019
Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario
Rhys Bidder • Ian Dew-Becker | May 2016
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
John G. Fernald | June 2014
A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment
Glenn D. Rudebusch • John C. Williams | May 2014
Recent Extensions of U.S. Unemployment Benefits: Search Responses in Alternative Labor Market States
Robert G. Valletta | May 2014
Has U.S. Monetary Policy Tracked the Efficient Interest Rate?
Vasco Curdia • Andrea Ferrero • Ging Cee Ng • Andrea Tambalotti | May 2014
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Mary C. Daly • John G. Fernald • Oscar Jorda • Fernanda Nechio | April 2014
The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows
Galina Hale • Maurice Obstfeld | December 2014
Inflation Expectations and the News
Michael D. Bauer | March 2014
Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis
Reint Gropp • John Krainer • Elizabeth Laderman | February 2014
Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
John Fernald • Mark M. Spiegel. Eric T. Swanson | February 2014
Scraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits
Jesse Rothstein • Robert G. Valletta | April 2017
Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type
Frederick T. Furlong • Yelena Takhtamanova • David Lang | March 2014
Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl:" Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform
Hui He • Feng Huang • Zheng Liu • Dongming Zhu | November 2017
Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?
Jens H.E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2014
The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
John G. Fernald • Charles I. Jones | January 2014
Modernization and Discrete Measures of Democracy
Jess Benhabib • Alejandro Corvalen • Mark M. Spiegel | January 2014
2013

Disability Benefit Growth and Disability Reform in the U.S.: Lessons from Other OECD Nations
Richard V. Burkhauser • Mary C. Daly • Duncan McVicar • Roger Wilkins | December 2013
Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
Jens H.E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013
A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income
Jens H.E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Oscar Jorda • Moritz Schularick • Alan M. Taylor | February 2014
Physician Payments Under Health Care Reform
Abe Dunn • Adam Hale Shapiro | March 2014
The Impact of Reserves Practices on Bank Opacity
Giuliano Iannotta • Simon H. Kwan | July 2014
A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound
Jens H. E. Christensen | January 2016
Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy
Zheng Liu • Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015
Shocks and Adjustments
Mary C. Daly • John G. Fernald • Oscar Jorda • and Fernanda Nechio | July 2017
Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio | August 2016
Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia
Eric T. Swanson | September 2014
Frequency Shifting
Rhys Bidder | March 2018
Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series
Rhys Bidder • Matthew E. Smith | January 2018
The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share
Michael Elsby • Bart Hobijn • Aysegül Sahin | September 2013
Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?
Jens H. E. Christensen • James M. Gillan | December 2018
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Òscar Jordà • Alan M. Taylor | September 2013
Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
Joshua D. Angrist • Òscar Jordà • Guido M. Kuersteiner | August 2013
Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence and Applications
Kevin X.D. Huang • Zheng Liu • John Q. Zhu | August 2013
Land Prices and Unemployment
Zheng Liu • Jianjun Miao • Tao Zha | March 2016
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
Eric T. Swanson • John C. Williams | August 2013
The Effect of Capital Controls and Prudential FX Measures on Options-Implied Exchange Rate Stability
Marius del Giudice Rodriguez • Thomas Wu | September 2013
Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
Òscar Jordà | July 2013
Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
Michael D. Bauer • Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2015
State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech
Enrico Moretti • Daniel J. Wilson | July 2013
Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act
Sylvain Leduc • Daniel J. Wilson | April 2016
A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy
John C. Williams | July 2013
Bank Linkages and International Trade
Galina Hale • Christopher Candelaria • Julian Caballero • Sergey Borisov | February 2016
Inequality and Mortality: New Evidence from U.S. County Panel Data
Mary C. Daly • Daniel J. Wilson | May 2013
China’s Financial Linkages with Asia and the Global Financial Crisis
Reuven Glick • Michael Hutchison | May 2013
The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar
Reuven Glick • Sylvain Leduc | May 2013
Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?
Sylvain Leduc • Mark M. Spiegel | May 2013
Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market
Henry S. Farber • Robert G. Valletta | April 2013
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve
Mary C. Daly • Bart Hobijn | January 2014
Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields
Jens H. E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch | June 2013
Persistence of Regional Inequality in China
Christopher Candelaria • Mary Daly • Galina Hale | March 2013
On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Market Fluctuations
Michael Elsby • Bart Hobijn • Aysegül Sahin | February 2013
Price Setting in an Innovative Market
Adam Copeland • Adam Hale Shapiro | February 2013
House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals
Paolo Gelain • Kevin J. Lansing | May 2014
Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles
Vasco Cúrdia • Daria Finocchiaro | October 2012
Rare Shocks, Great Recessions
Vasco Cúrdia • Marco Del Negro • Daniel L. Greenwald | January 2013
2012

Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth
Abe Dunn • Eli Liebman • Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2012
House Lock and Structural Unemployment
Robert G. Valletta | April 2013
Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession
Bart Hobijn • Aysegül Sahin | July 2013
Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare
Kevin J. Lansing • Agnieszka Markiewicz | June 2016
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs
Han Chen • Vasco Cúrdia • Andrea Ferrero | October 2012
The Economic Security Index: A New Measure for Research and Policy Analysis
Jacob S. Hacker • Gregory Huber • Austin Nichols • Philipp Rehm • Mark Schlesinger • Robert G. Valletta • Stuart Craig | October 2012
Housing Supply and Foreclosures
William Hedberg • John Krainer | September 2012
A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity
John Fernald | April 2014
Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
John G. Fernald | September 2012
Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences
Eric T. Swanson | September 2013
Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths
Mary C. Daly • Daniel J. Wilson • Norman J. Johnson | September 2012
Infrastructure Spending as Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing the Evidence
Sylvain Leduc • Daniel J. Wilson | February 2016
Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP
Paul R. Bergin • Reuven Glick • Jyh-Lin Wu | September 2012
Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy
Chun Chang • Zheng Liu • Mark Spiegel | January 2015
International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy
Michael D. Bauer • Christopher J. Neely | December 2013
House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy
Paolo Gelain • Kevin J. Lansing • Caterina Mendicino | February 2013
Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks
Sylvain Leduc • Zheng Liu | May 2015
The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires
Bart Hobijn | July 2012
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio | July 2012
Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields
Jens H. E. Christensen • Jose A. Lopez • Glenn D. Rudebusch | July 2014
The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing
Jens H. E. Christensen • Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2012
Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts
Òscar Jordá • Malte Knuppel • Massimiliano Marcellino | May 2012
Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment
Sylvain Leduc • Daniel J. Wilson | June 2012
Lost in Translation? Teacher Training and Outcomes in High School Economics Classes
Robert G. Valletta • K. Jody Hoff • Jane S. Lopus | April 2013
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
Eric T. Swanson • John C. Williams | January 2013
Do People Understand Monetary Policy?
Carlos Carvalho • Fernanda Nechio | April 2014