Executive Vice President and Director of Research
Monetary policy, Business cycles, and International finance
CV (pdf, 38.34 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | SSRN
The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States
2022-03 | with Wilson | February 2022abstract (+)
Clouded in Uncertainty: Pursuing Financial Stability with Monetary Policy
2021-03 | January 2021
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB
2020-21 | with Amano, Gnocchi, and Wagner | June 2020abstract (+)
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
2020-19 | with Liu | May 2020abstract (+)
Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk
2019-26 | with Amano and Carter | October 2019abstract (+)
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
2019-17 | with Liu | February 2023abstract (+)
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics | with Corsetti and Dedolaabstract (+)
Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications
Forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics | with Moran and Vigfussonabstract (+)
Robotic Labour: The Automation Channel of Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty
VoxEU, 2020 | with Liuabstract (+)
The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(1), January 2020, 310-343 | with Liuabstract (+)
Leduc-Liu-replication-files.zip – Replication files
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes
International Journal of Central Banking 14(5), December 2018, 103-152 | with Glickabstract (+)
Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in a Leveraged Economy
Economic Journal 128(609), March 2018, 797-826 | with Natalabstract (+)
Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(2), 2017, 253-292 | with Wilson | Yesabstract (+)
Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks
Journal of Monetary Economics 82, September 2016, 20-35 | with Liuabstract (+)
The International Dimension of Productivity and Demand Shocks in the US Economy
Journal of the European Economic Association 12(1), February 2014, 153-176 | with Corsetti and Dedolaabstract (+)
Infrastructure Spending as Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing the Evidence
Review of Economics and Institutions 5(1), Winter 2014, 1-24 | with Wilsonabstract (+)
Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data
Review of Economics and Statistics 95(4), October 2013, 1352-1367abstract (+)
Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?
Pacific Economic Review 18(3), August 2013, 345-369 | with Spiegelabstract (+)
Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment
In NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2012, 27, ed. by Jonathan Parker and Michael Woodford | University of Chicago Press, 2013. 89-142 | with Wilsonabstract (+)
wp12-04bkAppendices.pdf – Appendices to Working Paper 2012-04
Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage
IMF Economic Review 61(1), April 2013, 199-224 | with Arseneauabstract (+)
Central Bank Announcements of Asset Purchases and the Impact on Global Financial and Commodity Markets
Journal of International Money and Finance 31(8), December 2012, 2078-2101 | with Glickabstract (+)
Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through
In Macroeconomic Performance in a Globalising Economy, ed. by R. Anderton and G. Kenny | Cambridge University Press, 2011 | with Gust and Vigfussonabstract (+)
Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through
Journal of Monetary Economics 57(3), April 2010, 309-324 | with Gust and Vigfussonabstract (+)
Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sources of Local-Currency Price Stability
In International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, ed. by J. Gali and M. Gertler | Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010 | with Corsetti and Dedola
The Adjustment of Global External Balances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices Matter?
Journal of International Economics 79(2), November 2009, 173-185 | with Gust and Sheetsabstract (+)
High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through
Journal of Monetary Economics 55(6), September 2008, 1113-1128 | with Corsetti and Dedolaabstract (+)
Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006 | Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008. 117-194 | with Corsetti and Dedolaabstract (+)
International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks
Review of Economic Studies 75(2), April 2008, 443-473 | with Corsetti and Dedolaabstract (+)
Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility
Review of Economic Dynamics 10(4), October 2007, 595-614 | with Sillabstract (+)
Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence From the Livingston Survey
Journal of Monetary Economics 54(2), March 2007, 433-459 | with Sill and Starkabstract (+)
An Assessment of the Disorderly Adjustment Hypothesis for Industrial Economies
International Finance 9(1), Spring 2006, 37-61 | with Croke and Kaminabstract (+)
A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns
Journal of Monetary Economics 51(4), May 2004, 781-808 | with Sillabstract (+)
A Quantitative Analysis of Currency Regimes
In Exchange-Rate Dynamics, ed. by J.O. Hairault | Oxford: Routledge, 2004 | with Dedola
Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium
Journal of International Money and Finance 21(7), December 2002, 957-980abstract (+)
Why Is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?
International Journal of Finance and Economics 6(4) , October 2001, 401-419 | with Dedolaabstract (+)
Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?
Economic Letter 2022-21 | August 8, 2022 | with Glick and Pepper
Watch FOMC Rewind Liveâ€”Conversations Breaking Down Fed Policy Announcements
SF Fed Blog | Apr 2022
Understanding Climate Risk: What We Learned from Businesses
SF Fed Blog | 2022 | with Jargalsaikhan and Oliveira
How Are Businesses Responding to Climate Risk?
Economic Letter 2022-06 | March 21, 2022 | with Jargalsaikhan and Oliveira
Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?
Economic Letter 2021-19 | July 12, 2021 | with Glick, Kouchekinia, and Liu
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound
Economic Letter 2020-22 | August 10, 2020 | with Diwan and Mertens
COVID-19 and CO2
Economic Letter 2020-18 | July 6, 2020 | with Hale
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
Economic Letter 2020-07 | March 30, 2020 | with Liu
Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?
Economic Letter 2020-05 | February 24, 2020 | with Amano and Carter
Is Job Automation Keeping Down Wages?
SF Fed Video | Feb 2020 | with Liu
Are Workers Losing to Robots?
Economic Letter 2019-25 | September 26, 2019 | with Liu
Why Is the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Still So Big? Our Animated Economic Letter Explains
SF Fed Blog | Sep 2019 | with Foerster
Why Is the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?
SF Fed Video | Sep 2019 | with Foerster
Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?
Economic Letter 2019-16 | June 3, 2019 | with Foerster
Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?
Economic Letter 2019-02 | January 14, 2019 | with Marti and Wilson
Has the Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant?
Economic Letter 2017-30 | October 16, 2017 | with Wilson
The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil
Economic Letter 2016-13 | April 18, 2016 | with Moran and Vigfusson
Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2014-33 | November 10, 2014 | with Rudebusch
Fueling Road Spending with Federal Stimulus
Economic Letter 2014-25 | August 25, 2014 | with Wilson
Slow Business Start-ups and the Job Recovery
Economic Letter 2014-20 | July 7, 2014 | with Laderman
Uncertainty and the Slow Labor Market Recovery
Economic Letter 2013-21 | July 22, 2013 | with Liu
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar
Economic Letter 2013-09 | April 1, 2013 | with Glick
Highway Grants: Roads to Prosperity?
Economic Letter 2012-35 | November 26, 2012 | with Wilson
Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation
Economic Letter 2012-28 | September 17, 2012 | with Liu
Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases Fueling the Rise in Commodity Prices?
Economic Letter 2011-10 | April 4, 2011 | with Glick
Confidence and the Business Cycle
Economic Letter 2010-35 | November 22, 2010
Disagreement about the Inflation Outlook
Economic Letter 2009-31 | October 5, 2009 | with Rudebusch and Weidner
Fighting Downturns with Fiscal Policy
Economic Letter 2009-20 | June 19, 2009