Research and Insights on Inflation and Monetary Policy
High inflation continues to have a significant impact on communities across the United States. Bringing inflation back to the FOMC’s longer-run average goal of 2% is currently a top priority for the Fed. This page provides a searchable archive of recent insights and research from the SF Fed on inflation, monetary policy, economic conditions, financial conditions, and the Fed’s ongoing efforts to restore price stability.
Featured Inflation Content
Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?
Given steady declines in price inflation for core goods and expectations that rent inflation will moderate over time, the outlook for nonhousing core services—or “supercore”—inflation has grown in importance. State-level data document a typically weak relationship between this indicator and unemployment rates, highlighting the stickiness of supercore inflation.
Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve
Combining estimates of the Beveridge curve and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.
How Much Do Labor Supply Costs Drive Inflation?
Tight labor markets have raised concerns about the role of labor costs in persistently high inflation readings. Policymakers are paying particular attention to nonhousing services inflation, which is considered most closely linked to wages.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Indicators and Data
Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation
Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation
Key Inflation Content (and how Monetary Policy seeks to address it)
Global Supply Chain Pressures and US Inflation
Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. However, supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.
Mix of Inflation Contributors Is Changing
Core services inflation has been rising over the past year, while goods inflation and energy inflation have been moderating in recent months. This means the mix of inflation contributors is changing, with services becoming a more substantial part of overall inflation.
Forward Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect.
Goods consumption is moderating while services consumption is rising back toward its pre-pandemic trend line. Each of these adjustments suggest the economy may be normalizing.
Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets shows that, since late 2021, broader monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate alone.
What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight
A study on the timing of monetary policy suggests that, if the Federal Reserve had begun tightening policy in March 2021, inflation would have been only about 1 percentage point lower as of June 2022, while unemployment would be about 2 percentage points higher.
How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?
Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in recent inflation levels while demand factors are responsible for about one-third.
Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?
Analyzing the volume and sentiment of daily news articles on inflation suggests that one-fourth of the increased gap between higher inflation expectations for households compared with professional estimates can be attributed to heightened negative media coverage.
Recent Content on Inflation
Monetary Policy: Progress Is Not Victory
President's Speech |
Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and Stock Prices
Economic Letter |
Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?
Economic Letter |
Beyond the Numbers: Uncertain Economic Conditions Continue in the Twelfth District
SF Fed Blog |
Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?
Economic Letter |
Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve
Economic Letter |
Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation
Economic Letter |
How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?
Economic Letter |
Questions on Inflation and the Economy? Watch the Quick Clips from Ask the SF Fed
SF Fed Blog |
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
Economic Letter |
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
President's Speech |
Evaluating Monetary Policy with Inflation Bands and Horizons
Economic Letter |
Rising Interest Rates Dampen District’s Housing Market Activity
SF Fed Blog |
Are Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Mexico?
Economic Letter |
Finding a Way to Measure How Tight Monetary Policy Is
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability
Economic Letter |
Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability
President's Speech |
Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?
Economic Letter |
How Is Inflation Affecting Our Paychecks? Watch Our Latest Tutorial Video
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Comparing Measures of Housing Inflation
Economic Letter |
SF Fed Blog |
What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight
Economic Letter |
The Singularity of the Dual Mandate
Economic Letter |
The Singularity of the Dual Mandate
President's Speech |
Charting New Stories with SF Fed Data Explorer
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Economic Letter |
Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?
Economic Letter |
COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?
Economic Letter |
Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance
President's Speech |
How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?
Economic Letter |
60-Second Explainer: How the Fed is Working to Lower Inflation
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Watch FOMC Rewind Live, May 2022 – Insights on Fed Policy Announcements
SF Fed Blog |
Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
President's Speech |
Watch FOMC Rewind Live—Conversations Breaking Down Fed Policy Announcements
SF Fed Blog |
Watch: Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
SF Fed Blog |
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Economic Letter |
Beyond the Numbers: Inflation Concerns in the Federal Reserve’s Twelfth District
SF Fed Blog |
This Time Is Different…Because We Are
Economic Letter |
This Time Is Different…Because We Are
President's Speech |
Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
FedViews |
Average Inflation Targeting in the Financial Crisis Recovery
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Policymaking in a Time of Uncertainty
President's Speech |
FedViews |
FedViews |
Return of the Original Phillips Curve
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?
Economic Letter |
What’s Behind the Recent Rise in Core Inflation?
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Wage Dynamics: Theory, Data, and Policy
President's Speech |
Weighing the Role of Supply Bottlenecks in Core PCE Inflation
SF Fed Blog |
FedViews |
Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Lessons from History, Policy for Today
President's Speech |
FedViews |
FedViews |
FedViews |
FedViews |
Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19
Economic Letter |
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?
Economic Letter |
Economic Letter |
The Finer Points of Cyclical and Acyclical Inflation
SF Fed Blog |
Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts
Economic Letter |
FedViews |
Recent Events
Fireside Chat with Mary C. Daly
General Event |
Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education (CTREE)
General Event |
Mary C. Daly’s Fireside Chat with the National Association for Business Economics
General Event |
General Event |
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
General Event |
In Conversation: Mary C. Daly at the American Enterprise Institute
General Event |
Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability
General Event |
In Conversation: Mary C. Daly with the European Economics & Financial Centre
General Event |
In Conversation: Mary C. Daly with UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics
General Event |
The Singularity of the Dual Mandate
General Event |
Mary Daly at UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022
General Event |
Economic Club of Minnesota Fireside Chat: Mary C. Daly with Neel Kashkari
General Event |