Research and Insights on Inflation and Monetary Policy

High inflation continues to have a significant impact on communities across the United States. Bringing inflation back to the FOMC’s longer-run average goal of 2% is currently a top priority for the Fed. This page provides a searchable archive of recent insights and research from the SF Fed on inflation, monetary policy, economic conditions, financial conditions, and the Fed’s ongoing efforts to restore price stability.

Featured Inflation Content

Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?

Given steady declines in price inflation for core goods and expectations that rent inflation will moderate over time, the outlook for nonhousing core services—or “supercore”—inflation has grown in importance. State-level data document a typically weak relationship between this indicator and unemployment rates, highlighting the stickiness of supercore inflation.

Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve
Combining estimates of the Beveridge curve and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.

How Much Do Labor Supply Costs Drive Inflation?
Tight labor markets have raised concerns about the role of labor costs in persistently high inflation readings. Policymakers are paying particular attention to nonhousing services inflation, which is considered most closely linked to wages.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Indicators and Data

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation

PCE Inflation Dispersion

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation

Proxy Funds Rate

Key Inflation Content (and how Monetary Policy seeks to address it)

Global Supply Chain Pressures and US Inflation

Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. However, supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.

Mix of Inflation Contributors Is Changing

Core services inflation has been rising over the past year, while goods inflation and energy inflation have been moderating in recent months. This means the mix of inflation contributors is changing, with services becoming a more substantial part of overall inflation.

Forward Looking Policy in a Real-Time World

Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect.

Changing Consumption Patterns

Goods consumption is moderating while services consumption is rising back toward its pre-pandemic trend line. Each of these adjustments suggest the economy may be normalizing.

Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate

A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets shows that, since late 2021, broader monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate alone.

What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight

A study on the timing of monetary policy suggests that, if the Federal Reserve had begun tightening policy in March 2021, inflation would have been only about 1 percentage point lower as of June 2022, while unemployment would be about 2 percentage points higher.

How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?

Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in recent inflation levels while demand factors are responsible for about one-third.

Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?

Analyzing the volume and sentiment of daily news articles on inflation suggests that one-fourth of the increased gap between higher inflation expectations for households compared with professional estimates can be attributed to heightened negative media coverage.

Recent Content on Inflation

Monetary Policy: Progress Is Not Victory

President's Speech | Posted October 5, 2023

Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and Stock Prices

Economic Letter | Posted September 25, 2023

Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?

Economic Letter | Posted August 7, 2023

Beyond the Numbers: Uncertain Economic Conditions Continue in the Twelfth District

SF Fed Blog | Posted July 31, 2023

Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?

Economic Letter | Posted July 12, 2023

Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

Economic Letter | Posted July 10, 2023

Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation

Economic Letter | Posted June 20, 2023

How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?

Economic Letter | Posted May 30, 2023

Questions on Inflation and the Economy? Watch the Quick Clips from Ask the SF Fed

SF Fed Blog | Posted March 9, 2023

Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World

Economic Letter | Posted March 9, 2023

Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World

President's Speech | Posted March 4, 2023

Evaluating Monetary Policy with Inflation Bands and Horizons

Economic Letter | Posted February 21, 2023

Rising Interest Rates Dampen District’s Housing Market Activity

SF Fed Blog | Posted January 20, 2023

Are Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Mexico?

Economic Letter | Posted January 17, 2023

Finding a Way to Measure How Tight Monetary Policy Is

SF Fed Blog | Posted December 1, 2022

FedViews: December 1, 2022

FedViews | Posted December 1, 2022

Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability

Economic Letter | Posted November 28, 2022

Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability

President's Speech | Posted November 21, 2022

Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?

Economic Letter | Posted November 14, 2022

How Is Inflation Affecting Our Paychecks? Watch Our Latest Tutorial Video

SF Fed Blog | Posted October 20, 2022

FedViews: October 20, 2022

FedViews | Posted October 20, 2022

Comparing Measures of Housing Inflation

Economic Letter | Posted October 17, 2022

Beyond the Numbers: Amidst Signs of Progress, Inflation Concerns Persist in the Federal Reserve’s Twelfth District

SF Fed Blog | Posted October 13, 2022

What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight

Economic Letter | Posted October 11, 2022

The Singularity of the Dual Mandate

Economic Letter | Posted October 3, 2022

The Singularity of the Dual Mandate

President's Speech | Posted September 29, 2022

Charting New Stories with SF Fed Data Explorer

SF Fed Blog | Posted September 8, 2022

FedViews: September 8, 2022

FedViews | Posted September 8, 2022

Wage Growth When Inflation Is High

Economic Letter | Posted September 6, 2022

Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?

Economic Letter | Posted August 8, 2022

COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan

Economic Letter | Posted August 3, 2022

FedViews: July 14, 2022

FedViews | Posted July 14, 2022

The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?

Economic Letter | Posted July 5, 2022

Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance

President's Speech | Posted June 24, 2022

How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?

Economic Letter | Posted June 21, 2022

60-Second Explainer: How the Fed is Working to Lower Inflation

SF Fed Blog | Posted June 2, 2022

FedViews: June 2, 2022

FedViews | Posted June 2, 2022

Watch FOMC Rewind Live, May 2022 – Insights on Fed Policy Announcements

SF Fed Blog | Posted May 25, 2022

Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation

Economic Letter | Posted May 23, 2022

FedViews: April 21, 2022

FedViews | Posted April 21, 2022

Steering Toward Sustainable Growth

President's Speech | Posted April 20, 2022

Watch FOMC Rewind Live—Conversations Breaking Down Fed Policy Announcements

SF Fed Blog | Posted April 14, 2022

Watch: Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?

SF Fed Blog | Posted March 31, 2022

Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?

Economic Letter | Posted March 28, 2022

Beyond the Numbers: Inflation Concerns in the Federal Reserve’s Twelfth District

SF Fed Blog | Posted March 4, 2022

This Time Is Different…Because We Are

Economic Letter | Posted February 28, 2022

This Time Is Different…Because We Are

President's Speech | Posted February 23, 2022

Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?

Economic Letter | Posted February 14, 2022

FedViews: February 10, 2022

FedViews | Posted February 10, 2022

FedViews: January 14, 2022

FedViews | Posted January 14, 2022

Average Inflation Targeting in the Financial Crisis Recovery

Economic Letter | Posted January 10, 2022

FedViews: December 2, 2021

FedViews | Posted December 2, 2021

Policymaking in a Time of Uncertainty

President's Speech | Posted November 16, 2021

FedViews: October 7, 2021

FedViews | Posted October 7, 2021

FedViews: September 9, 2021

FedViews | Posted September 9, 2021

Return of the Original Phillips Curve

Economic Letter | Posted August 9, 2021

FedViews: July 15, 2021

FedViews | Posted July 15, 2021

Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?

Economic Letter | Posted July 12, 2021

What’s Behind the Recent Rise in Core Inflation?

SF Fed Blog | Posted June 18, 2021

FedViews: June 3, 2021

FedViews | Posted June 3, 2021

Wage Dynamics: Theory, Data, and Policy

President's Speech | Posted May 21, 2021

Weighing the Role of Supply Bottlenecks in Core PCE Inflation

SF Fed Blog | Posted May 18, 2021

FedViews: April 8, 2021

FedViews | Posted April 8, 2021

Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts

Economic Letter | Posted March 22, 2021

FedViews: March 4, 2021

FedViews | Posted March 4, 2021

Lessons from History, Policy for Today

President's Speech | Posted March 2, 2021

FedViews: January 14, 2021

FedViews | Posted January 14, 2021

FedViews: December 3, 2020

FedViews | Posted December 3, 2020

FedViews: October 8, 2020

FedViews | Posted October 8, 2020

FedViews: September 3, 2020

FedViews | Posted September 3, 2020

Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19

Economic Letter | Posted August 24, 2020

Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound

Economic Letter | Posted August 10, 2020

FedViews: July 9, 2020

FedViews | Posted July 9, 2020

We Can’t Afford Not To

Economic Letter | Posted June 15, 2020

FedViews: May 28, 2020

FedViews | Posted May 28, 2020

Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation

Economic Letter | Posted May 11, 2020

FedViews: April 6, 2020

FedViews | Posted April 2, 2020

The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus

Economic Letter | Posted March 30, 2020

FedViews: March 5, 2020

FedViews | Posted March 5, 2020

Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?

Economic Letter | Posted February 24, 2020

The New Stone Soup

Economic Letter | Posted February 18, 2020

The Finer Points of Cyclical and Acyclical Inflation

SF Fed Blog | Posted February 12, 2020

Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts

Economic Letter | Posted February 10, 2020

FedViews: January 9, 2020

FedViews | Posted January 13, 2020

Recent Events

Fireside Chat with Mary C. Daly

General Event | Posted September 12, 2023

Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education (CTREE)

General Event | Posted June 20, 2023

Mary C. Daly’s Fireside Chat with the National Association for Business Economics

General Event | Posted May 17, 2023

Remarks by Mary C. Daly

General Event | Posted April 7, 2023

Mary C. Daly’s Keynote Closing Remarks at Princeton University Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies Symposium

Posted March 6, 2023

Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World

General Event | Posted February 24, 2023

In Conversation: Mary C. Daly at the American Enterprise Institute

General Event | Posted December 8, 2022

Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability

General Event | Posted November 15, 2022

In Conversation: Mary C. Daly with the European Economics & Financial Centre

General Event | Posted November 7, 2022

In Conversation: Mary C. Daly with UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics

General Event | Posted October 20, 2022

The Singularity of the Dual Mandate

General Event | Posted September 26, 2022

Mary Daly at UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022

General Event | Posted April 18, 2022

Economic Club of Minnesota Fireside Chat: Mary C. Daly with Neel Kashkari

General Event | Posted May 3, 2021