Economic Letter
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.
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From Hiring Difficulties to Labor Hoarding?
Sylvain Leduc, Luiz Edgard Oliveira
Businesses faced challenges finding enough workers to fill job openings early in the pandemic recovery. One view suggests that, as economic growth moderated relative to the strong bounceback in economic activity in the early pandemic recovery period, some businesses started hoarding labor to avoid the potential difficulty of recruiting workers in the future. Evidence from Okun’s law—which theorizes that economic output tends to fall as unemployment rises—is consistent with this view. The results suggest that businesses partly adjusted production by changing the number of hours for current workers rather than varying employee numbers.
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Do Banks Lend to Distressed Firms?
Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, Juan M. Sánchez
Concerns emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic over banks continuing to lend to unproductive businesses that were close to default. Recent research shows that lenders have incentives to offer relatively better terms to less-productive and more-indebted firms to recover their prior investments. U.S. loan-level data confirm the empirical relevance of such lending behavior. A rich model of firms and banks further emphasizes that this type of lending can also depress overall productivity by sustaining firms that should otherwise exit the economy.
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What the Moment Demands
Mary C. Daly
When central banks are unsure about how the economy will evolve, what impact their policies will have, or how fundamental benchmarks in the economy are changing, the optimal strategy is a gradualist approach to policy. The challenge will be to respond rapidly when the situation requires and to resist the pressure to act quickly when patience is needed. The following is adapted from the closing keynote by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany, on November 17.
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Recent and Near-Term Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?
Brigid Meisenbacher, Daniel J. Wilson
The federal government routinely uses government spending and taxes to help offset the highs and lows of the U.S. business cycle. While government spending typically increases during a recession, the magnitude of the fiscal expansion during the pandemic recession was outsized compared with the average historical pattern. This likely contributed to real economic growth and possibly inflation during the recovery. Over the next few years, U.S. fiscal policy is expected to be roughly neutral, providing neither a tailwind nor headwind to the overall economy.
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Global Market Discipline during Recent Policy Tightening
Anton Bobrov, Mark M. Spiegel
Financial market discipline, in the form of movements in yields charged on sovereign debt of emerging economies, during the 2021 onset of U.S. monetary policy tightening depended heavily on domestic economic conditions. This pattern matches yield movements during the 2013 taper tantrum. The pattern suggests that, while advanced economy policies can influence emerging market financial conditions, domestic policies such as government spending levels are also important. However, the differing responses for pandemic-related spending versus the overall current account suggest that markets distinguished between needed COVID-19 fiscal support and other spending.
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The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity
Zoë Arnaut, Òscar Jordà, and Fernanda Nechio
Countries’ commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can have important implications for their economies. Data since the 1800s reveal that the amount of CO2 emissions generated for a given level of output follows a bell-shaped curve. Pairing this with projections of future economic growth can help in predicting future overall emissions. Comparing actual data with past projections for levels of emission intensity reveals that reductions have been slower than predicted over the past 40 years. This divergence highlights the challenges many countries may face in reaching their emissions targets.
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Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations
Leila Bengali, Evgeniya A. Duzhak, and Cindy Zhao
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men has been declining for decades. About 14% of millennial males at age 25 are not in the labor force, compared with 7% of baby boomer males when they were that age. This generational gap declines substantially as groups approach middle age; the decline reflects that younger millennials enrolled in postsecondary education at higher rates and moved into the workforce later than prior generations. The convergence for millennial males suggests that the trend of men’s higher nonparticipation rates may slow in the future.
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How Much Do Work Interruptions Reduce Mothers’ Wages?
Na’ama Shenhav
Women experience large and persistent declines in earnings after having children, which in part reflects fewer hours worked while children are young. Recent studies of large policy-induced changes in mothers’ work experience in the 1990s quantify the impact of avoiding lengthy work interruptions after childbirth. The analysis shows that mothers who return to work a year sooner after childbirth earn 5-6% higher wages 10 to 20 years later. Thus, policies that encourage mothers’ return to work can lead to large improvements in their lifetime earnings.
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Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and Stock Prices
Kevin J. Lansing, Federico C. Nucera
During the 1970s and early 1980s, rises in inflation tended to coincide with weaker economic activity and lower stock prices. But in more recent decades, rises in inflation have tended to coincide with stronger economic activity and higher stock prices. The emergence of a pattern where inflation, economic activity, and stock prices all move together over the business cycle can be traced to the beneficial effects of well-anchored inflation expectations.
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Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?
Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor
Monetary policy is often regarded as having only temporary effects on the economy, moderating the expansions and contractions that make up the business cycle. However, it is possible for monetary policy to affect an economy’s long-run trajectory. Analyzing cross-country data for a set of large national economies since 1900 suggests that tight monetary policy can reduce potential output even after a decade. By contrast, loose monetary policy does not appear to raise long-run potential. Such effects may be important for assessing the preferred stance of monetary policy.