Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy

Friday, March 31, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Portland Conference Room

Morning Session Chair: Huiyu Li, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Optimal Policy Rules in HANK

Authors: Alisdair McKay, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Christian K. Wolf, MIT and NBER
Discussants: Adrien Auclert, Stanford University, NBER, and CEPR
Sushant Acharya, Bank of Canada and CEPR

Download paper (McKay) (pdf, 1.34 mb)
Download slides (McKay) (pdf, 838 kb)
Download slides (Auclert) (pdf, 434 kb)
Download slides (Acharya) (pdf, 257 kb)

Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Authors: Serdar Birinci, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Fatih Karahan, Amazon
Yusuf Mercan, University of Melbourne
Kurt See, Bank of Canada
Discussants: Leena Rudanko, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Masao Fukui, Boston University

Download paper (Birinci) (pdf, 1.29 mb)
Download slides (Birinci) (pdf, 1.47 mb)
Download slides (Rudanko) (pdf, 486 kb)
Download slides (Fukui) (pdf, 491 kb)

Afternoon Session Chair: Andrew Foerster, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Back to the 1980s or Not? The Drivers of Real and Inflation Risks in Treasury Bonds

Authors: Carolin Pflueger, University of Chicago, NBER, and CEPR
Discussants: Martin Lettau, University of California-Berkeley, NBER, and CEPR
Stefania D’Amico, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Download paper (Pflueger) (pdf, 1.43 mb)
Download slides (Pflueger) (pdf, 3.74 mb)
Download slides (Lettau) (pdf, 223 kb)
Download slides (D’Amico) (pdf, 953 kb)

Long Run Inflation Expectations

Authors: Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and CEPR
Sebastian Rast, De Nederlandsche Bank
Discussants: Mark Watson, Princeton University and NBER
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California-Berkeley, NBER, and CEPR

Download paper (Rast) (pdf, 4.39 mb)
Download slides (Rast) (pdf, 2.49 mb)
Download slides (Watson) (pdf, 384 kb)
Download slides (Gorodnichenko) (pdf, 2.93 mb)

Policymakers’ Uncertainty

Authors: Anna Cieslak, Duke University, NBER, and CEPR
Stephen Hansen, Imperial College London and CEPR
Michael McMahon, University of Oxford, CEPR, and CfM (LSE)
Song Xiao, London School of Economics
Discussants: Stefano Eusepi, University of Texas-Austin
Ulrike Malmendier, University of California-Berkeley, NBER and CEPR

Download paper (McMahon) (pdf, 1.24 mb)
Download slides (McMahon) (pdf, 2.56 mb)
Download slides (Eusepi) (pdf, 1.23 mb)
Download slides (Malmendier) (pdf, 512 kb)

Dinner – Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor

Introduction: Sylvain Leduc, Director of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Speaker: Christopher Waller, Governor, Federal Reserve Board

Livestream of Governor Waller’s speech
Download slides (Waller) (pdf, 596 kb)

Scheduled session speakers in bold.