Program

Thursday, August 8 - Saturday, August 10, 2013

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Thursday, August 8

8:15 amContinental Breakfast
   
8:45 amOpening Remarks
 

Glenn Rudebusch
Director of Research and Executive Vice President
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

9:00 amUncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs
 

Troy Davig
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Andrew Foerster
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Download paper (pdf, 233 kb)

10:00 amCoffee
   
10:30 amSentiment and the U.S. Business Cycle
 

Fabio Milani
University of California, Irvine

Download paper (pdf, 343 kb)

11:30 amThe Making of a Great Contraction with a Liquidity Trap
 

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Columbia University

Martin Uribe
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 316 kb)

12:30 pmLunch
   
2:00 pmImperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles
 

Pei Kuang
University of Birmingham

Download paper (pdf, 404 kb)

3:00 pmHousing and Endogenous Default
 

Emily Marshall
University of Kentucky

Paul Shea
Bates College

Download paper (pdf, 3.0 mb)

4:00 pmCoffee
   
4:30 pmHousing Prices and Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
 

Klaus Adam
Mannheim University

Michael Woodford
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 325 kb)

6:00 pmDinner
 

Welcoming Remarks
John C. Williams
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Evening Remarks
James B. Bullard
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Friday, August 9

8:30 amContinental Breakfast
   
9:00 amTargeting Nominal GDP or Prices: Expectations Dynamics and the Interest Rate Lower Bound
 

Seppo Honkapohja
Bank of Finland

Kaushik Mitra
University of St Andrews

Download paper (pdf, 389 kb)

10:00 amCoffee
   
10:30 amCan News Shocks Account for the Business-cycle Dynamics of Inventories?
 

Nicolas Crouzet
Columbia University

Hyunseung Oh
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 792 kb)

 
11:30 amIdentifying News Shocks with Forecast Data
 

Yasuo Hirose
Keio University

Takushi Kurozumi
Bank of Japan

Download paper (pdf, 184 kb)

12:30 amLunch
   
2:00 pmInformational Fragility of Dynamics Rational Expectations Equilibria
 

Giacomo Rondina
University of California, San Diego

Todd Walker
Indiana University

Download paper (pdf, 249 kb)

3:00 pmIntersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information and Aggregate Dynamics in a Neoclassical Model
 

Manoj Atolia
Florida State University

Ryan Chahrour
Boston College

Download paper (pdf, 444 kb)

4:00 pmCoffee
   
4:30 pmIndividual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior
   

Tiziana Assenza
Catholic University of Milan

Peter Heemeijer
De Nederlandsche Bank

Cars Hommes
University of Amsterdam

Domenico Massaro
University of Amsterdam

Download paper (pdf, 2.9 mb)

6:00 pmAdjourn
   

Saturday, August 10

8:15 amContinental Breakfast
   
8:45 amForecast Combination in the Macroeconomy
   

Christopher Gibbs
University of Oregon

Download paper (pdf, 554 kb)

9:45 amAdaptive Learning in an Incomplete-Markets Model
 

Andrea Giusto
Dalhousie University

Download paper (pdf, 3.2 mb)

10:45 amCoffee
   
11:15 amConsistent Expectations and the Behavior of Exchange Rates
 

Kevin Lansing
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Jun Ma
University of Alabama

Download paper (pdf, 890 kb)

12:15 amCognitive Consistency, Signal Extraction, and Macroeconomic Persistence
 

Hyein Chung
Binghamton University

Wei Xiao
Binghamton University

Download paper (pdf, 581 kb)

1:15 pmLunch