Thursday, August 8, 2013 – Saturday, August 10, 2013

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Thursday, August 8

8:15 am Continental Breakfast
8:45 am Opening Remarks

Glenn Rudebusch
Director of Research and Executive Vice President
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

9:00 am Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Troy Davig
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Andrew Foerster
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Download paper (pdf, 233 kb)

10:00 am Coffee
10:30 am Sentiment and the U.S. Business Cycle

Fabio Milani
University of California, Irvine

Download paper (pdf, 343 kb)

11:30 am The Making of a Great Contraction with a Liquidity Trap

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Columbia University

Martin Uribe
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 316 kb)

12:30 pm Lunch
2:00 pm Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

Pei Kuang
University of Birmingham

Download paper (pdf, 404 kb)

3:00 pm Housing and Endogenous Default

Emily Marshall
University of Kentucky

Paul Shea
Bates College

Download paper (pdf, 3.0 mb)

4:00 pm Coffee
4:30 pm Housing Prices and Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy

Klaus Adam
Mannheim University

Michael Woodford
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 325 kb)

6:00 pm Dinner

Welcoming Remarks
John C. Williams
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Evening Remarks
James B. Bullard
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Friday, August 9

8:30 am Continental Breakfast
9:00 am Targeting Nominal GDP or Prices: Expectations Dynamics and the Interest Rate Lower

Seppo Honkapohja
Bank of Finland

Kaushik Mitra
University of St Andrews

Download paper (pdf, 389 kb)

10:00 am Coffee
10:30 am Can News Shocks Account for the Business-cycle Dynamics of Inventories?

Nicolas Crouzet
Columbia University

Hyunseung Oh
Columbia University

Download paper (pdf, 792 kb)

11:30 am Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Yasuo Hirose
Keio University

Takushi Kurozumi
Bank of Japan

Download paper (pdf, 184 kb)

12:30 am Lunch
2:00 pm Informational Fragility of Dynamics Rational Expectations Equilibria

Giacomo Rondina
University of California, San Diego

Todd Walker
Indiana University

Download paper (pdf, 249 kb)

3:00 pm Intersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information and Aggregate Dynamics in a Neoclassical Model

Manoj Atolia
Florida State University

Ryan Chahrour
Boston College

Download paper (pdf, 444 kb)

4:00 pm Coffee
4:30 pm Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

Tiziana Assenza
Catholic University of Milan

Peter Heemeijer
De Nederlandsche Bank

Cars Hommes
University of Amsterdam

Domenico Massaro
University of Amsterdam

Download paper (pdf, 2.9 mb)

6:00 pm Adjourn

Saturday, August 10

8:15 am Continental Breakfast
8:45 am Forecast Combination in the Macroeconomy

Christopher Gibbs
University of Oregon

Download paper (pdf, 554 kb)

9:45 am Adaptive Learning in an Incomplete-Markets Model

Andrea Giusto
Dalhousie University

Download paper (pdf, 3.2 mb)

10:45 am Coffee
11:15 am Consistent Expectations and the Behavior of Exchange Rates

Kevin Lansing
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Jun Ma
University of Alabama

Download paper (pdf, 890 kb)

12:15 am Cognitive Consistency, Signal Extraction, and Macroeconomic Persistence

Hyein Chung
Binghamton University

Wei Xiao
Binghamton University

Download paper (pdf, 581 kb)

1:15 pm Lunch