John G. Fernald
Senior Research Advisor
Macroeconomics, Productivity growth, China's economy
CV (pdf, 416.95 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | Personal website
The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?
2023-07 | with Inklaar and Ruzic | February 2023abstract (+)
The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output
2022-19 | with Li | September 2022abstract (+)
Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
2022-08 | March 2022abstract (+)
The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective
2022-07 | with Inklaar | March 2022abstract (+)
World Productivity: 1996-2014
2020-17 | with Esfahani and Hobijn | March 2020abstract (+)
Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?
2016-18 | August 2016abstract (+)
Shocks and Adjustments
2013-32 | with Daly, Jorda, and Nechio | July 2017abstract (+)
A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity
2012-19 | April 2014abstract (+)
Sector-Specific Technical Change
Manuscript | with Basu, Fisher, and Kimball | November 2013abstract (+)
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (Reprint)
Journal of International Money and Finance 114(102406), June 2021 | with Hsu and Spiegelabstract (+)
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
Journal of International Money and Finance 110(102262), February 2021 | with Hsu and Spiegelabstract (+)
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
International Productivity Monitor 38, September 2020, 104-135 | with Inklaarabstract (+)
The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality
In Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Economic Growth, NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, ed. by C. Hulten and V. Ramey | NBER/University of Chicago Press, 2018 | with Bosler, Daly, and Hobijnabstract (+)
Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
Annual Review of Economics 8, October 2016, 465-496 | with Wangabstract (+)
The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity
European Economic Review 88(C), April 2016, 3-20 | with Cette and Mojonabstract (+)
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual, ed. by Parker, Woodford, 2015. 1-51abstract (+)
Online_appendix_to.pdf – Online appendix
Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
Journal of International Money and Finance 49(part A), December 2014, 83-103 | with Spiegel and Swansonabstract (+)
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
National Institute Economic Review 228, May 2014, R58-R64 | with Nechio, Daly, and Jordaabstract (+)
The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
American Economic Review 104(5), May 2014, 44-49 | with Jonesabstract (+)
Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3(2), April 2011, 29-74abstract (+)
What Do We Know (and Not Know) about Potential Output?
FRB St Louis Review 91(4), July 2009, 187-213 | with Basuabstract (+)
A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
In Price Index Concepts and Measurement, 70, ed. by E. Diewert, J. Greenlees, and C. Hulten | Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2009. 273-320 | with Basu and Wangabstract (+)
Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions, and Contractionary Technology Improvements
Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), November 2007, 2467-2485abstract (+)
Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S Industry Data
German Economic Review 8(2), May 2007, 146-173 | with Basuabstract (+)
Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
American Economic Review 96(5), December 2006, 1418-1448 | with Basu and Kimballabstract (+)
Industry_BFK_Data.xls – contains additional underlying industry data. These include growth rates for gross output, value added, primary inputs, total inputs, and hours per worker; and factor shares.
The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not the United Kingdom?
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2003 | with Basu, Oulton, and Srinivasanabstract (+)
Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market
Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2002 | with Rogers
Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology
European Economic Review, June 2002 | with Basu
Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, December 2001 | with Basu and Shapiro
Was China the First Domino? Assessing the Links between China and the Rest of Emerging Asia
Journal of International Money and Finance, August 1999 | with Edison and Lounganisupplement (+)
Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity
American Economic Review, June 1999, 619-638
Returns to Scale in U.S. Manufacturing: Estimates and Implications
Journal of Political Economy, April 1997 | with Basu
Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?
Journal of Monetary Economics, August 1995 | with Basu
Labor Productivity in a Pandemic
Economic Letter 2021-22 | August 16, 2021 | with Li and Ochse
Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
Economic Letter 2021-04 | February 16, 2021 | with Li and Ochse
Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19
SF Fed Blog | 2020 | with Beauregard and Spiegel
How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT
Economic Letter 2019-26 | October 7, 2019 | with Gerstein and Spiegel
Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?
Economic Letter 2019-17 | June 24, 2019 | with Li
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
Economic Letter 2018-04 | February 12, 2018 | with Hall, Stock, and Watson
Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2017-18 | June 26, 2017 | with Mertens and Shultz
Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?
Economic Letter 2017-04 | February 13, 2017 | with Byrne and Reinsdorf
What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?
Economic Letter 2016-30 | October 11, 2016
The Recent Rise and Fall of Rapid Productivity Growth
Economic Letter 2015-04 | February 9, 2015 | with Wang
Has China’s Economy Become More “Standard”?
Economic Letter 2014-30 | October 6, 2014 | with Hsu and Spiegel
Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law
Economic Letter 2014-12 | April 21, 2014 | with Daly, Jorda, and Nechio
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis
Economic Letter 2013-38 | December 23, 2013 | with Daly, Jorda, and Nechio
On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures
Economic Letter 2013-08 | March 25, 2013 | with Malkin and Spiegel
What Is the Value of Bank Output?
Economic Letter 2011-15 | May 16, 2011 | with Alon, Inklaar, and Wang
Growth Accounting, Potential Output, and the Current Recession
Economic Letter 2009-26 | August 17, 2009 | with Matoba
Information and Communications Technology as a General Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S. Industry Data
Economic Review | 2008 | with Basu
Will Fast Productivity Growth Persist?
Economic Letter 2007-09 | April 6, 2007 | with Thipphavong and Trehan
Financial Innovations and the Real Economy: Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2007-05 | March 2, 2007 | with Doms and Lopez
Is a Recession Imminent?
Economic Letter 2006-32 | November 24, 2006 | with Trehan
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policymakers
Economic Letter 2005-35 | December 9, 2005 | with Wang
Why Hasn’t the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession?
Economic Letter 2005-31 | November 18, 2005 | with Trehan